Game Recap: SJS 3, PHI 4 (SO), November 11, 2024

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Game Recap

SJS3

Final/SOMon, Nov 11, 2024Every game that night

PHI4

PHI beat SJS 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.02 expected goals to 2.40. PHI outshot SJS 43 to 31. M. Granlund led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Granlund had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. S. Ersson stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
SJS	0	2	1	0	3
PHI	2	1	0	1	4

1st 1:40PHIE. Johnson0.09 xG
1st 15:56PHIT. KonecnyPP0.14 xG
2nd 5:09PHIM. Michkov0.22 xG
2nd 15:29SJSJ. Thompson0.12 xG
2nd 18:33SJSM. Granlund0.07 xG
3rd 17:36SJSB. Goodrow0.14 xG

Team Stats

SJSPHI

31Shots on goal43

2.40Expected goals4.02

50Shot attempts79

225v5 shots on goal38

0/3Power play1/3

21Hits23

19Blocked shots10

16Penalty minutes14

14Giveaways14

2Takeaways12

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.40 xGPHI 4.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS31 on goal, 3 scored

PHI42 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Granlund	C	1	1	2	5	0	1	+2	2	24:14	3:37
W. Eklund	LW	0	2	2	1	4	0	+2	0	20:16	2:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	1	3	4	+3	0	19:38	1:47
B. Goodrow	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	-1	5	13:27	1:47
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	5	4	0	0	0	22:50	3:37
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	19:27	3:37
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	17:26	3:37
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	2	16:06	0:00
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	12:59	1:56
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:52	0:23
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7:24	0:27
G. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	6:01	0:25
H. Thrun	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	25:39	0:37
C. Ceci	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	24:46	0:21
J. Thompson	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:40	1:52
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	22:03	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+2	0	21:26	1:57
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	13:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Vanecek	43	40	3	.930	65:00	OT loss
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Michkov	RW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+2	2	15:55	3:21
T. Konecny	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	21:23	3:34
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	14:44	0:00
A. Richard	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:00	1:00
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:09	3:29
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	6	3	1	-1	0	19:45	3:31
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	16:25	0:56
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	4	5	0	-2	0	15:57	0:00
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	14:07	0:00
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	13:15	0:59
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	13:00	0:00
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:32	0:57
E. Andrae	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	0	25:40	3:34
E. Zamula	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	13:03	0:46
E. Johnson	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	5	12:51	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	30:23	0:09
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	0	24:08	0:09
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	5	18:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	31	28	3	.903	65:00	Win
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.5, PHI 3.7	SJS 3, PHI 4
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	SJS 23.3, PHI 35.2	SJS 31, PHI 43
Win chance	PHI 69%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	3.9	6	0.88	0	34%	0
PHI T. Konecny	3.4	5	1.22	1	40%	1
PHI S. Couturier	2.9	0	0.71	0	22%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.5	4	0.70	0	29%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	2.3	4	0.64	0	14%	0
PHI J. Farabee	2.0	2	0.63	0	23%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.0	1	0.52	1	21%	0
SJS M. Granlund	2.0	5	0.81	2	17%	1
PHI S. Laughton	2.0	4	0.60	0	20%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.8	2	0.47	0	23%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.8	2	0.74	2	24%	1
PHI B. Brink	1.7	1	0.50	0	18%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.7	3	0.35	0	6%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.6	3	0.29	0	5%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.5	1	0.59	2	18%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.3	2	0.42	1	16%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.3	0	0.33	0	15%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.2	0	0.29	1	5%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.2	3	0.39	0	14%	0
PHI A. Richard	1.2	1	0.49	1	19%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.2	0	0.32	0	15%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.1	3	0.26	0	11%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.1	1	0.30	0	15%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	3	0.22	0	4%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.0	2	0.39	0	14%	0
PHI E. Johnson	1.0	1	0.16	1	6%	1
PHI E. Andrae	1.0	4	0.22	1	5%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.0	3	0.29	1	13%	1
SJS T. Liljegren	1.0	0	0.33	0	6%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.9	0	0.33	1	6%	0
SJS J. Thompson	0.9	1	0.30	1	6%	1
SJS J. Rutta	0.8	1	0.21	0	5%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.8	0	0.21	0	10%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.7	1	0.23	1	4%	0
SJS G. Smith	0.7	0	0.12	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.