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Game Recap
STL6
FinalFri, Apr 3, 2026Every game that night
ANA2

STL beat ANA 6-2, with the chances close: 3.62 expected goals to 3.65. R. Thomas led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Kyrou had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Hofer stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
STL3216
ANA2002
  1. 1st 1:51ANAR. Poehling0.18 xG
  2. 1st 5:24STLR. Thomas0.28 xG
  3. 1st 11:18STLD. HollowayPP0.09 xG
  4. 1st 16:01ANAJ. Viel0.47 xG
  5. 1st 18:44STLJ. Berggren0.15 xG
  6. 2nd 3:08STLP. Suter0.28 xG
  7. 2nd 16:50STLC. Parayko0.07 xG
  8. 3rd 1:22STLD. HollowayPP0.14 xG

Team Stats

STLANA
29Shots on goal27
3.62Expected goals3.65
51Shot attempts61
245v5 shots on goal23
2/4Power play0/3
19Hits25
14Blocked shots10
8Penalty minutes10
14Giveaways16
6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 3.62 xGANA 3.65 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdANA goal, 1:51STL goal, 5:24STL goal, 11:18ANA goal, 16:01STL goal, 18:44STL goal, 3:08STL goal, 16:50STL goal, 1:22

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL29 on goal, 6 scored
ANA27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. ThomasC123100+1018:204:13
D. HollowayLW202522+1021:074:14
J. NeighboursLW022101+2015:592:55
P. SuterC112110+2015:410:00
D. DvorskyRW011101+1214:512:04
J. BerggrenRW101300+2013:522:05
J. KyrouRW011511+1013:061:51
J. SnuggerudRW000200+1219:323:59
J. DrouinLW000202+1014:141:50
O. StenbergC000111-2010:300:00
O. SundqvistC000011-2210:080:00
N. WalkerLW000161-209:580:00
P. BrobergD022110+1023:043:51
C. ParaykoD112212+2022:380:00
T. TuckerD0110210012:550:00
C. FowlerD0000000020:191:26
L. MaillouxD000130+1219:111:52
T. LindsteinD0002010017:010:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Hofer27252.92659:34Win
J. Binnington000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. PoehlingC1123100012:010:00
M. McTavishC0112200214:292:23
J. VielLW1012200010:570:00
M. GranlundC0000310020:323:38
L. CarlssonC000401-1017:473:21
A. KillornLW0001100217:382:20
B. SenneckeRW0001210217:193:00
T. TerryRW000400-1216:313:00
C. KreiderLW000000-1015:473:41
T. WasheC000041-1013:210:00
F. VatranoRW000231-1012:372:25
N. GaucherC000110-109:050:00
O. ZellwegerD0110110019:210:00
D. HellesonD011001+2018:090:00
J. LaCombeD0000210023:152:53
J. CarlsonD000302-3221:573:07
J. TroubaD0002300020:370:00
I. MooreD000200-3010:500:12
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal29236.79359:43Loss
V. Husso000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1D. Holloway13:48J. Snuggerud14:44R. Thomas11:23
Line 2P. Suter12:56J. Neighbours12:34J. Berggren11:47
Line 3J. Drouin11:14D. Dvorsky12:30J. Kyrou10:24
Line 4N. Walker7:59O. Stenberg7:45O. Sundqvist8:48
Pair 1P. Broberg15:26L. Mailloux14:46
Pair 2C. Parayko17:52T. Lindstein14:55
Pair 3C. Fowler14:56T. Tucker12:38

ANA

Line 1A. Killorn13:48M. Granlund13:02B. Sennecke13:04
Line 2T. Terry12:31L. Carlsson13:01C. Kreider11:15
Line 3J. Viel10:42R. Poehling10:17M. McTavish12:01
Line 4T. Washe9:07F. Vatrano8:59N. Gaucher8:14
Pair 1J. Trouba15:27J. LaCombe18:59
Pair 2D. Helleson14:50O. Zellweger15:56
Pair 3J. Carlson14:42I. Moore10:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamMason McTavish STL First game back in Anaheim, his team until May 20261 A, 2 SOG
  • Old teamCam Fowler STL Faces ANA, his team until Dec 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSTL 3.1, ANA 3.2STL 6, ANA 2
Total goals6.38
Shots on goalSTL 25.9, ANA 29.7STL 29, ANA 27
Win chanceANA 52%STL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
STL D. Holloway2.850.87229%2
STL J. Snuggerud2.520.72024%0
STL J. Kyrou2.350.69128%0
ANA T. Terry2.340.83027%0
ANA J. Carlson2.330.79013%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.340.81028%0
ANA C. Kreider2.100.72034%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.010.58020%0
ANA J. Trouba2.020.3708%0
ANA M. Granlund1.900.74023%0
ANA A. Killorn1.810.50022%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.800.61010%0
STL R. Thomas1.711.02325%1
STL L. Mailloux1.610.35010%0
STL C. Parayko1.620.36210%1
ANA M. McTavish1.420.41117%0
STL P. Suter1.410.43218%1
STL D. Dvorsky1.410.33117%0
ANA J. Viel1.420.23110%1
ANA F. Vatrano1.320.28015%0
STL P. Broberg1.310.53212%0
ANA R. Poehling1.330.47217%1
ANA O. Zellweger1.300.2216%0
STL J. Neighbours1.210.53222%0
STL J. Drouin1.220.50013%0
STL J. Berggren1.230.41117%1
ANA T. Washe1.100.21011%0
STL T. Lindstein1.120.2306%0
STL C. Fowler1.100.4607%0
ANA I. Moore1.020.2005%0
STL O. Stenberg1.010.34012%0
STL T. Tucker0.900.2116%0
STL N. Walker0.810.25011%0
STL O. Sundqvist0.700.2709%0
ANA D. Helleson0.700.2114%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.