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Game Recap
STL2
UTA4
UTA beat STL 4-2, with the chances close: 2.73 expected goals to 3.21. N. Schmaltz led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). O. Sundqvist had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. K. Vejmelka stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| UTA | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 15:10UTAN. Schmaltz0.06 xG
- 2nd 7:45UTAL. Crouse0.05 xG
- 2nd 7:55STLO. Sundqvist0.02 xG
- 2nd 11:43UTAS. Durzi0.19 xG
- 2nd 16:27STLP. Buchnevich0.20 xG
- 3rd 6:57UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.22 xG
Team Stats
STLUTA
28Shots on goal23
3.21Expected goals2.73
63Shot attempts59
215v5 shots on goal18
0/4Power play1/3
28Hits14
19Blocked shots15
20Penalty minutes22
14Giveaways10
2Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 3.21 xGUTA 2.73 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:51 | 2:41 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:24 | 3:43 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:05 | 2:45 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:42 | 2:02 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:21 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 18:17 | 2:43 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:04 | 4:01 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:45 | 3:43 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:25 | 2:23 |
| O. Stenberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:19 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:39 | 1:58 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 5 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24:45 | 3:56 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:10 | 1:10 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:22 | 0:23 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:23 | 2:27 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 13:31 | 0:00 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 23 | 19 | 4 | .826 | 56:28 | Loss |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Schmaltz | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 23:28 | 3:13 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:09 | 2:49 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 18:06 | 0:11 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 3:02 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 18:51 | 2:52 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:24 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 14:11 | 0:20 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:24 |
| D. But | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:24 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 7 | 8:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:21 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 25:39 | 3:13 |
| S. Durzi | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:09 | 0:44 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 | 0:19 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 | 0:00 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:08 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 60:00 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1P. Buchnevich13:17J. Snuggerud13:44B. Schenn12:43
Line 2J. Neighbours12:36J. Kyrou12:08R. Thomas11:04
Line 3J. Berggren10:21D. Dvorsky10:17O. Stenberg11:17
Line 4O. Sundqvist10:40A. Toropchenko8:31N. Walker9:42
Pair 1C. Parayko15:58P. Broberg17:40
Pair 2C. Fowler18:46L. Mailloux12:38
UTA
Line 1N. Schmaltz15:14L. Crouse13:16C. Keller13:34
Line 2J. Peterka13:03D. Guenther14:46B. Hayton12:09
Line 3M. Carcone11:19D. But10:43J. McBain10:45
Line 4K. Stenlund10:45B. Tanev8:39A. Kerfoot2:21
Pair 1M. Sergachev16:55S. Durzi20:31
Pair 2J. Marino15:54N. Schmidt14:00
Pair 3I. Cole12:08N. DeSimone11:58
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.7, UTA 3.2 | STL 2, UTA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | STL 22.6, UTA 28.8 | STL 28, UTA 23 |
| Win chance | UTA 59% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 3.0 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.8 | 4 | 1.01 | 3 | 32% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.4 | 5 | 0.86 | 3 | 27% | 2 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.1 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 2.1 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 2.0 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.9 | 1 | 0.50 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.8 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.6 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 1.6 | 5 | 0.45 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA D. But | 1.6 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.6 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.5 | 0 | 0.88 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.4 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.3 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.3 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| STL O. Stenberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.7 | 5 | 0.27 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.