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Game Recap
STL2
VGK4
VGK beat STL 4-2, with the chances close: 2.14 expected goals to 2.28. M. Marner led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Schmid stopped 17 of 19.
Team Stats
STLVGK
19Shots on goal25
2.28Expected goals2.14
40Shot attempts51
155v5 shots on goal23
1/1Power play0/1
30Hits21
17Blocked shots9
7Penalty minutes7
12Giveaways18
3Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.28 xGVGK 2.14 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:59 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:59 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:59 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:59 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 5 | 15:32 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| O. Stenberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26:43 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 27:41 | 0:58 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 25:18 | 0:01 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:01 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 58:55 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:57 |
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:13 | 2:00 |
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14:15 | 2:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:16 | 1:10 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:53 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:50 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 1:07 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:57 | 1:03 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:50 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:29 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Schmid | 19 | 17 | 2 | .895 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindbom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1B. Schenn15:15J. Snuggerud16:01P. Buchnevich16:07
Line 2J. Neighbours15:34R. Thomas14:22J. Kyrou14:12
Line 3J. Berggren13:03D. Dvorsky12:27O. Stenberg12:51
Line 4O. Sundqvist12:23N. Walker13:17A. Toropchenko11:54
Pair 1C. Fowler24:30C. Parayko25:46
VGK
Line 1I. Barbashev15:43J. Eichel15:05M. Stone11:32
Line 2T. Hertl14:46B. Howden15:16K. Kolesar14:57
Line 3R. Smith14:08P. Dorofeyev15:10M. Marner16:48
Line 4C. Reinhardt11:58B. Bowman11:46C. Sissons10:30
Pair 1S. Theodore19:17J. Lauzon20:11
Pair 2N. Hanifin20:04Z. Whitecloud18:05
Pair 3B. Hutton16:16K. Korczak18:08
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.4, VGK 3.4 | STL 2, VGK 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | STL 21.4, VGK 29.3 | STL 19, VGK 25 |
| Win chance | VGK 66% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.4 | 4 | 1.25 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.6 | 3 | 0.67 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.4 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.4 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.3 | 1 | 1.10 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.2 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.1 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.9 | 3 | 1.16 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 1.7 | 4 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.6 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.6 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.4 | 2 | 0.81 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.3 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK B. Bowman | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.1 | 3 | 0.17 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL O. Stenberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK C. Reinhardt | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.