Game Recap: TBL 4, ANA 3 (OT), December 31, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL4

Final/OTWed, Dec 31, 2025Every game that night

ANA3

TBL beat ANA 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.01 expected goals to 2.86. B. Hagel led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). D. Raddysh had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TBL	1	1	1	1	4
ANA	0	1	2	0	3

1st 13:30TBLJ. Moser0.09 xG
2nd 15:17ANAJ. Harkins0.08 xG
2nd 19:11TBLB. Point0.29 xG
3rd 3:57ANAB. Sennecke0.10 xG
3rd 8:00TBLN. KucherovPP0.06 xG
3rd 13:02ANAM. McTavishPP0.16 xG
OT 2:47TBLD. Raddysh0.25 xG

Team Stats

TBLANA

29Shots on goal28

3.01Expected goals2.86

56Shot attempts59

195v5 shots on goal19

1/3Power play1/3

19Hits13

12Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways21

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.01 xGANA 2.86 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL28 on goal, 4 scored

ANA26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Hagel	LW	0	3	3	6	0	0	+2	2	19:14	2:16
N. Kucherov	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	18:29	4:10
B. Point	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	17:45	3:29
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+3	0	20:06	3:36
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	0	18:00	2:17
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	17:01	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	16:10	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:28	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:46	1:34
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:35	3:17
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	11:30	2:17
D. James	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	8:19	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	1	1	2	6	1	3	+1	0	26:08	3:20
J. Moser	D	1	0	1	1	2	0	+2	0	24:57	0:16
C. D'Astous	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	-2	0	18:48	2:28
M. Crozier	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	2	14:27	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:28	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	28	25	3	.893	62:47	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. McTavish	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	18:27	3:43
B. Sennecke	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	18:03	3:41
R. Johnston	LW	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	8:01	0:00
J. Harkins	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	7:22	0:01
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:28	3:41
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	18:26	3:39
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	17:57	1:35
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:48	0:00
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:26	1:33
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	15:46	1:34
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:45	0:02
N. Nesterenko	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:24	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	2	22:31	2:11
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	25:42	1:28
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	-2	0	25:27	3:03
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	16:52	0:04
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	15:29	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	13:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	29	25	4	.862	62:47	OT loss
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde15:35P. Holmberg14:28Z. Girgensons14:26

Line 2N. Kucherov13:07B. Point13:38G. Goncalves11:12

Line 3J. Guentzel14:13B. Hagel13:09A. Cirelli11:33

Line 4O. Bjorkstrand8:18D. James8:19N. Paul8:29

Pair 1D. Raddysh20:10J. Moser20:50

Pair 2C. D'Astous15:33E. Cernak15:43

Pair 3D. Carlile12:53M. Crozier13:09

ANA

Line 1C. Gauthier15:32L. Carlsson13:35A. Killorn13:27

Line 2M. McTavish13:39B. Sennecke13:15C. Kreider12:37

Line 3N. Nesterenko12:55T. Terry13:50M. Granlund12:12

Line 4R. Johnston8:01J. Harkins7:21R. Poehling9:52

Pair 1J. Trouba19:07J. LaCombe17:12

Pair 2P. Mintyukov18:36I. Moore16:29

Pair 3O. Zellweger13:39D. Helleson13:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.3, ANA 2.9	TBL 4, ANA 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	TBL 27.1, ANA 28.9	TBL 29, ANA 28
Win chance	TBL 56%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.2	3	0.70	0	27%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	3	1.56	2	36%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.9	2	1.15	0	40%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	6	0.90	3	30%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.5	6	0.88	2	16%	1
TBL B. Point	2.4	2	1.03	1	38%	1
ANA T. Terry	2.2	1	0.72	0	25%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.2	3	0.60	1	22%	1
ANA C. Kreider	2.2	0	0.61	0	33%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.1	3	0.73	0	25%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	2.0	5	0.55	0	14%	0
ANA M. Granlund	1.9	1	0.68	0	19%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	1.8	2	0.63	1	21%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	4	0.64	0	23%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.8	1	0.65	0	23%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.8	3	0.31	0	8%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.7	0	0.47	0	21%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.6	0	0.31	1	5%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.6	0	0.27	0	8%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	1	0.48	0	16%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.4	0	0.21	0	12%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.4	1	0.37	1	7%	1
ANA A. Killorn	1.3	2	0.33	0	16%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.3	1	0.42	1	8%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.3	0	0.25	0	6%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.2	1	0.34	0	13%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.2	1	0.28	0	11%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.1	2	0.30	1	8%	0
TBL D. James	1.1	0	0.35	0	12%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.1	0	0.37	0	13%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.1	0	0.28	0	4%	0
TBL D. Carlile	1.0	1	0.25	0	7%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	0	0.38	0	13%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.9	0	0.20	0	6%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.7	2	0.11	1	6%	1
ANA R. Johnston	0.6	0	0.17	1	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.