Game Recap: TBL 4, OTT 5, October 19, 2024

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Game Recap

TBL4

FinalSat, Oct 19, 2024Every game that night

OTT5

OTT beat TBL 5-4, with the chances close: 2.24 expected goals to 1.99. D. Batherson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Batherson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. A. Forsberg stopped 25 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	0	3	1	4
OTT	2	2	1	5

1st 1:50OTTD. BathersonPP0.17 xG
1st 13:21OTTJ. Norris0.13 xG
2nd 1:59TBLN. Kucherov0.06 xG
2nd 10:39TBLN. Paul0.18 xG
2nd 13:20OTTD. Batherson0.07 xG
2nd 18:13TBLJ. Guentzel0.04 xG
2nd 18:56OTTB. TkachukPP0.17 xG
3rd 6:17OTTN. GregorSH0.16 xG
3rd 8:11TBLM. Chaffee0.06 xG

Team Stats

TBLOTT

29Shots on goal28

1.99Expected goals2.24

55Shot attempts55

205v5 shots on goal20

0/3Power play2/5

15Hits30

20Blocked shots18

14Penalty minutes10

17Giveaways14

2Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 1.99 xGOTT 2.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL29 on goal, 4 scored

OTT28 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	1	1	2	6	1	2	0	0	19:44	2:46
A. Cirelli	C	0	2	2	1	3	0	+2	6	16:56	2:01
B. Point	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:56	2:45
J. Guentzel	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	20:02	2:45
B. Hagel	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	19:03	2:28
N. Paul	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	4	16:26	1:58
M. Chaffee	RW	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	9:34	0:26
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	13:57	2:27
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:09	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:52	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	10:05	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	9:42	0:25
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	0	21:52	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	+1	0	19:49	0:03
N. Perbix	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	11:36	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	5	0	3	0	0	25:16	2:42
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	2	21:10	2:30
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	16:21	2:44

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	28	23	5	.821	57:56	Loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Batherson	RW	2	1	3	7	2	1	+1	0	21:16	4:54
C. Giroux	RW	0	2	2	2	0	2	+1	0	21:35	2:00
J. Norris	C	1	0	1	2	2	2	+1	2	21:14	4:55
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	1	4	2	0	2	19:36	5:35
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	5	2	0	-1	0	18:24	5:32
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	2	14:35	1:08
N. Gregor	LW	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	11:02	0:00
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	13:26	0:25
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	12:22	1:20
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	10:34	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	8:40	0:50
Z. MacEwen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	7:14	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	3	3	2	4	3	+1	0	26:28	5:05
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:13	0:42
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	20:06	1:57
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	4	17:48	0:02
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	15:56	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	13:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	29	25	4	.862	60:00	Win
M. Sogaard	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.4, OTT 3.2	TBL 4, OTT 5
Total goals	6.7	9
Shots on goal	TBL 27.6, OTT 31.5	TBL 29, OTT 28
Win chance	TBL 52%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.0	5	1.00	1	34%	1
TBL N. Kucherov	3.2	6	1.62	2	37%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.9	2	0.99	1	35%	1
TBL B. Point	2.6	1	1.06	1	40%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.4	0	0.60	1	23%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	1	0.99	1	29%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.3	7	0.79	3	26%	2
OTT T. Chabot	2.0	0	0.55	0	13%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.0	5	0.97	0	15%	0
OTT D. Perron	2.0	3	0.64	0	24%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.0	2	0.82	1	28%	0
OTT C. Giroux	2.0	2	0.80	2	26%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.9	2	0.52	3	10%	0
OTT J. Norris	1.9	2	0.64	1	29%	1
OTT N. Gregor	1.7	2	0.26	1	12%	1
TBL N. Paul	1.7	3	0.48	1	21%	1
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.7	2	0.28	0	12%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.6	0	0.44	0	21%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	1	0.54	2	20%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.2	0	0.24	0	10%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.2	1	0.20	0	6%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.2	1	0.20	0	8%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	2	0.23	0	12%	0
TBL C. Sheary	1.1	0	0.33	0	13%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.1	0	0.41	1	5%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	0	0.17	0	3%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.1	3	0.38	0	7%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.0	0	0.27	0	5%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.9	0	0.38	0	8%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	0	0.25	1	4%	0
TBL N. Perbix	0.8	0	0.31	1	5%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.8	1	0.22	1	11%	1
OTT J. Bernard-Docker	0.7	2	0.17	0	5%	0
OTT Z. MacEwen	0.7	0	0.14	0	6%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.13	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.