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Game Recap
TBL2
OTT6
OTT beat TBL 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.88 expected goals to 1.87. B. Tkachuk led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). J. Sanderson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. L. Ullmark stopped 28 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
- 2nd 15:46OTTJ. Spence0.13 xG
- 2nd 18:23TBLN. Paul0.16 xG
- 3rd 2:45OTTF. Zetterlund0.03 xG
- 3rd 4:39OTTJ. Sanderson0.15 xG
- 3rd 10:35TBLC. Perry0.05 xG
- 3rd 12:51OTTT. StützlePP0.29 xG
- 3rd 13:04OTTJ. SandersonPP0.23 xG
- 3rd 16:41OTTS. PintoEN0.93 xG
Team Stats
TBLOTT
30Shots on goal32
1.87Expected goals4.88
58Shot attempts61
295v5 shots on goal26
0/2Power play2/3
15Hits19
12Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes4
18Giveaways11
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 1.87 xGOTT 4.88 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Perry | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 2:09 |
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:27 | 1:05 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 2:54 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:29 | 2:31 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:33 | 2:14 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 17:13 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:01 | 1:01 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:52 | 1:28 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:29 | 0:41 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:22 | 1:11 |
| D. Duke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:41 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 | 0:18 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:42 | 3:01 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:41 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:18 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:43 | 0:48 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:22 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 31 | 26 | 5 | .839 | 58:46 | Loss |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:42 | 1:57 |
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18:31 | 1:57 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:17 | 1:57 |
| S. Pinto | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:20 | 0:35 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 1:57 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:35 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:00 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:35 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:23 | 0:20 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:08 | 1:57 |
| J. Spence | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:59 | 0:35 |
| C. Crotty | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 23:58 | 0:15 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:00 |
| L. Thomson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 30 | 28 | 2 | .933 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1Y. Gourde15:25Z. Girgensons14:26O. Bjorkstrand13:37
Line 2B. Point14:20J. Guentzel15:46N. Kucherov16:05
Line 3C. Perry11:56N. Paul11:45G. Goncalves11:42
Line 4C. Geekie10:48J. Pelletier9:11D. Duke8:41
Pair 1D. Raddysh16:40J. Moser17:21
Pair 2E. Lilleberg17:40C. D'Astous18:42
Pair 3R. McDonagh15:22E. Cernak16:48
OTT
Line 1D. Batherson14:57T. Stützle15:53C. Giroux14:43
Line 2M. Amadio14:37S. Pinto13:42N. Cousins11:31
Line 3D. Cozens13:33R. Greig14:20B. Tkachuk13:56
Line 4L. Eller9:45W. Foegele7:45F. Zetterlund8:48
Pair 1A. Zub19:35J. Sanderson18:35
Pair 2J. Spence21:03N. Matinpalo16:53
Pair 3C. Crotty13:29L. Thomson13:10
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.1, OTT 3.4 | TBL 2, OTT 6 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 24.2, OTT 29.3 | TBL 30, OTT 32 |
| Win chance | OTT 54% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.5 | 3 | 0.82 | 4 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.7 | 3 | 1.44 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.5 | 3 | 0.96 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.4 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.3 | 4 | 0.63 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.1 | 4 | 0.90 | 3 | 28% | 1 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.1 | 5 | 0.63 | 2 | 12% | 2 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 1.9 | 4 | 0.85 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 1.9 | 0 | 0.72 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.8 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT W. Foegele | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.4 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.2 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| TBL C. Perry | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.1 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT L. Eller | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.0 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT L. Thomson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL J. Pelletier | 0.9 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.7 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT C. Crotty | 0.5 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.