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Game Recap
TBL3
PHI4
PHI beat TBL 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.85 expected goals to 2.94. PHI outshot TBL 29 to 20. B. Brink led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Ersson stopped 17 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| PHI | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 8:29TBLG. GoncalvesPP0.11 xG
- 1st 14:20PHIB. Brink0.10 xG
- 2nd 0:15TBLZ. Girgensons0.55 xG
- 2nd 10:55PHIB. Brink0.15 xG
- 2nd 19:01PHIR. Poehling0.09 xG
- 3rd 3:50TBLC. Atkinson0.15 xG
Team Stats
TBLPHI
20Shots on goal29
2.94Expected goals2.85
54Shot attempts59
145v5 shots on goal24
1/3Power play0/2
19Hits19
11Blocked shots16
4Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways20
11Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.94 xGPHI 2.85 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:51 | 3:20 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:57 | 1:55 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:54 | 2:04 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:57 | 3:59 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:49 | 3:49 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:38 | 2:21 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:38 | 1:41 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:20 | 3:39 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:56 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 28:04 | 3:39 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 21:09 | 2:03 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Brink | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 4 | 16:13 | 2:01 |
| R. Poehling | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 14:10 | 0:03 |
| O. Lycksell | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:03 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:12 | 1:40 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:28 | 3:01 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 | 2:15 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:42 | 1:22 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:49 | 3:21 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:38 | 0:36 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:56 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5:25 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 29:06 | 1:36 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 23:39 | 0:03 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:52 | 2:34 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 1:25 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 65:00 | Win |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.4, PHI 2.8 | TBL 3, PHI 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 26.2, PHI 28.5 | TBL 20, PHI 29 |
| Win chance | TBL 59% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.6 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.5 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.4 | 1 | 0.98 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.4 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 2 | 1.00 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.2 | 1 | 0.90 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 2.0 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.9 | 4 | 0.46 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.7 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.7 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.7 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.5 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 3 | 16% | 2 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.3 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI O. Lycksell | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.2 | 3 | 0.31 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI J. Pelletier | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.7 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.7 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.7 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.