Game Recap: TBL 2, PIT 1 (SO), January 13, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL2

Final/SOTue, Jan 13, 2026Every game that night

PIT1

TBL beat PIT 2-1 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.81 expected goals to 3.91. B. Rust had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
TBL	0	0	1	1	2
PIT	0	0	1	0	1

3rd 14:13TBLJ. Moser0.31 xG
3rd 17:44PITE. Malkin0.12 xG

Team Stats

TBLPIT

31Shots on goal27

2.81Expected goals3.91

60Shot attempts52

265v5 shots on goal16

0/3Power play0/3

15Hits13

8Blocked shots15

33Penalty minutes14

18Giveaways15

4Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.81 xGPIT 3.91 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL30 on goal, 1 scored

PIT27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Y. Gourde	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:48	0:55
Z. Girgensons	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	15:28	0:00
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	4	26:22	6:35
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	24:39	5:30
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	-1	0	22:38	6:16
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:41	0:54
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	13:44	0:00
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	17	12:52	0:28
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:18	4:56
D. James	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:35	0:19
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:07	1:19
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	6:50	0:24
J. Moser	D	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	25:54	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	28:00	5:39
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	21:06	1:39
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:59	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	12	14:31	0:06
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	27	26	1	.963	64:29	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	20:20	4:02
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	22:37	3:56
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	6	0	2	0	0	22:14	4:03
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	4	0	3	0	0	21:57	3:38
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	15:38	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:01	0:04
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:06	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:05	1:53
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:38	0:01
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:32	2:14
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	10:50	2:03
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:28	1:55
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	25:13	3:45
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	25:56	2:08
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	19:58	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:15	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:05	0:09
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	12	13:08	0:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	31	30	1	.968	63:59	OT loss
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde14:39Z. Girgensons13:06P. Holmberg12:55

Line 2N. Kucherov15:45J. Guentzel12:15N. Paul11:34

Line 3A. Cirelli8:49B. Hagel11:43G. Goncalves7:09

Line 4O. Bjorkstrand6:22D. James9:37J. Finley6:26

Pair 1D. Raddysh18:21J. Moser18:15

Pair 2C. D'Astous16:21E. Cernak11:21

Pair 3D. Carlile10:23M. Crozier12:19

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby14:33R. Rakell14:35B. Rust13:56

Line 2E. Malkin12:01T. Novak12:57E. Chinakhov11:12

Line 3C. Dewar9:06B. Lizotte9:59N. Acciari9:16

Line 4J. Brazeau7:02B. Kindel8:04A. Mantha7:15

Pair 1K. Letang16:20B. Kulak19:12

Pair 2P. Wotherspoon13:07J. Ivany14:59

Pair 3R. Shea11:52C. Clifton11:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDeclan Carlile PIT First game against TBL since he left (his team until Apr 2026)1 SOG
Old teamJake Guentzel TBL Faces PIT, his team until Feb 20245 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.2, PIT 3.1	TBL 2, PIT 1
Total goals	6.3	3
Shots on goal	TBL 25.1, PIT 28.1	TBL 31, PIT 27
Win chance	TBL 51%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT R. Rakell	2.7	4	0.76	0	29%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.6	6	0.80	0	31%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	2.6	4	1.29	0	31%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	1	1.02	0	35%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.4	3	0.83	0	28%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.3	5	0.89	0	33%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.1	2	0.74	0	14%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.0	3	0.74	1	25%	1
PIT K. Letang	1.9	1	0.42	1	10%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.8	2	0.39	0	16%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.6	1	0.54	0	20%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	1	0.55	0	20%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.6	1	0.50	0	21%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.5	1	0.33	0	15%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.4	2	0.38	0	18%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.4	0	0.38	0	18%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.4	3	0.42	0	18%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	1	0.29	0	13%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	1	0.43	1	14%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.3	1	0.20	0	5%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.2	1	0.33	0	13%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	0	0.20	1	11%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.2	0	0.26	0	3%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	2	0.38	0	7%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.1	4	0.30	1	7%	1
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	1	0.21	0	11%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	1	0.31	0	14%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	0	0.22	0	3%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.0	2	0.37	0	13%	0
PIT J. Ivany	0.9	0	0.13	0	2%	0
TBL D. James	0.9	1	0.27	0	11%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	1	0.22	0	3%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.8	1	0.17	0	4%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.8	1	0.15	0	5%	0
TBL J. Finley	0.8	0	0.22	0	10%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	0	0.20	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.