Game Recap: TBL 2, TOR 5, October 21, 2024

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Game Recap

TBL2

FinalMon, Oct 21, 2024Every game that night

TOR5

TOR beat TBL 5-2, with the chances close: 3.99 expected goals to 4.03. W. Nylander led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Eyssimont had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. A. Stolarz stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	1	0	1	2
TOR	1	4	0	5

1st 3:57TORW. Nylander0.20 xG
1st 15:57TBLN. Paul0.22 xG
2nd 1:56TORA. MatthewsPP0.22 xG
2nd 7:33TORW. Nylander0.06 xG
2nd 9:31TORM. Pacioretty0.02 xG
2nd 14:02TORM. Knies0.23 xG
3rd 14:53TBLB. PointPP0.18 xG

Team Stats

TBLTOR

34Shots on goal29

4.03Expected goals3.99

64Shot attempts66

205v5 shots on goal21

1/6Power play1/4

20Hits20

14Blocked shots18

13Penalty minutes17

10Giveaways16

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 4.03 xGTOR 3.99 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL32 on goal, 2 scored

TOR28 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Point	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	21:55	7:32
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	4	2	1	0	0	21:39	7:31
N. Paul	LW	1	0	1	2	4	0	-1	0	15:24	3:38
M. Chaffee	RW	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	2	13:30	0:00
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	21:39	7:13
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	2	20:19	7:15
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	16:50	1:17
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-3	0	13:34	1:16
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	11:11	0:00
C. Atkinson	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	0	9:29	1:24
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:26	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	5	8:32	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	2	2	3	0	2	+1	0	24:19	7:03
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	21:52	1:51
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	18:26	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:09	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	2	15:45	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-3	2	13:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	14	10	4	.714	29:31	Loss
J. Johansson	15	14	1	.933	28:22

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	2	1	3	5	0	0	+2	0	16:22	5:32
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	22:21	5:36
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	6	0	2	+1	0	20:38	5:40
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	2	16:32	4:44
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	14:31	1:55
M. Pacioretty	LW	1	0	1	3	3	1	+1	0	12:21	0:56
B. McMann	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+2	2	11:36	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	9	10:35	1:02
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	13:52	0:09
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	12:32	0:40
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:28	0:15
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	11:41	0:13
C. Timmins	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:56	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	22:09	0:36
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	2	21:40	4:41
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	18:53	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	18:29	2:09
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	0	7	+2	2	18:01	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	34	32	2	.941	59:35	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDarren Raddysh TOR First game against TBL since he left (his team until May 2026)1 SOG
Old teamDennis Hildeby TBL First game back in Toronto, his team until Apr 20260 saves on 0
Old teamNick Paul TOR First game against TBL since he left (his team until May 2026)1 G, 2 SOG
Old teamPontus Holmberg TBL Faces TOR, his team until May 20250 SOG
HometownAnthony Cirelli TBL Plays near home (born in Etobicoke)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.2, TOR 3.6	TBL 2, TOR 5
Total goals	6.8	7
Shots on goal	TBL 27.3, TOR 32.3	TBL 34, TOR 29
Win chance	TOR 57%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.4	6	1.24	1	48%	1
TOR W. Nylander	3.5	5	1.08	3	37%	2
TBL N. Kucherov	3.2	4	1.51	1	35%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.1	4	0.81	1	30%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.9	3	0.95	0	33%	0
TBL B. Point	2.6	1	1.02	1	38%	1
TOR M. Marner	2.2	2	1.21	2	31%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.2	0	0.46	1	22%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.1	3	0.77	2	12%	0
TOR M. Rielly	2.0	1	0.71	0	11%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.0	5	0.78	0	27%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.9	2	0.56	1	21%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.9	1	0.68	1	17%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	1.9	3	0.51	1	18%	1
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	1	0.39	0	17%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.7	2	0.46	1	20%	1
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.7	1	0.43	0	8%	0
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.6	5	0.26	0	10%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	2	0.52	0	19%	0
TBL C. Atkinson	1.3	1	0.26	0	11%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	2	0.21	0	11%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.1	1	0.30	0	5%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.1	2	0.33	0	4%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	0	0.34	0	13%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	1	0.21	0	10%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.37	0	7%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.0	0	0.25	0	9%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	0	0.39	1	5%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.9	2	0.30	0	6%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	0	0.21	0	3%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	2	0.10	0	3%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.8	1	0.22	1	11%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	0	0.13	0	2%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.12	0	8%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.22	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.