Game Recap: TBL 3, TOR 5, January 20, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL3

FinalMon, Jan 20, 2025Every game that night

TOR5

TOR beat TBL 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.89 expected goals to 2.52. M. Knies led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). V. Hedman had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Woll stopped 27 of 30.

Team Stats

TBLTOR

30Shots on goal28

2.52Expected goals3.89

60Shot attempts52

255v5 shots on goal25

1/2Power play1/1

19Hits12

10Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways13

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.52 xGTOR 3.89 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL30 on goal, 3 scored

TOR26 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Paul	LW	2	0	2	5	1	0	+1	0	18:24	1:17
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	5	0	0	-3	0	25:06	2:57
B. Hagel	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-3	0	22:57	1:13
B. Point	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:53	1:50
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	23:47	1:19
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	20:26	1:42
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	12:57	1:46
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	10:23	0:00
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	8:56	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	8:21	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	7:57	0:00
C. Atkinson	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:59	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	23:21	1:44
V. Hedman	D	0	2	2	6	0	0	+2	0	23:04	1:21
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-2	0	20:43	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:11	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	15:29	0:06
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	27	23	4	.852	58:11	Loss
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	1	2	3	2	0	1	+2	0	22:13	0:48
M. Knies	LW	2	1	3	4	0	0	+1	0	19:49	0:48
A. Matthews	C	1	1	2	5	1	1	+2	0	21:56	0:48
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	20:55	0:48
B. McMann	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	19:05	0:48
S. Lorentz	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	8:28	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	14:01	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	13:32	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	11:21	0:00
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	11:07	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:45	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	5:10	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	23:37	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	20:45	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	24:21	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	22:45	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	13:59	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	30	27	3	.900	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDarren Raddysh TOR First game against TBL since he left (his team until May 2026)1 G, 1 A, 2 SOG
Old teamDennis Hildeby TBL First game back in Toronto, his team until Apr 20260 saves on 0
Old teamNick Paul TOR First game against TBL since he left (his team until May 2026)2 G, 5 SOG
Old teamPontus Holmberg TBL Faces TOR, his team until May 20252 SOG
HometownAnthony Cirelli TBL Plays near home (born in Etobicoke)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.3, TOR 3.3	TBL 3, TOR 5
Total goals	6.6	8
Shots on goal	TBL 28.7, TOR 30.6	TBL 30, TOR 28
Win chance	TOR 51%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.8	5	1.08	2	44%	1
TOR W. Nylander	3.3	3	1.02	1	38%	1
TBL N. Kucherov	3.1	5	1.47	1	34%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.6	3	0.55	1	27%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	1	0.92	0	34%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	1	0.91	1	30%	0
TBL B. Point	2.4	1	1.02	1	39%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.3	2	1.21	3	30%	1
TBL V. Hedman	2.2	6	0.79	2	12%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.9	2	0.64	0	23%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	4	0.62	3	25%	2
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	1	0.57	1	10%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.7	1	0.40	1	8%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	1	0.38	0	19%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.7	2	0.55	0	15%	0
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.6	2	0.22	0	10%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.6	5	0.47	2	20%	2
TBL D. Raddysh	1.4	2	0.41	2	6%	1
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	2	0.17	0	10%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	1	0.34	0	7%	0
TBL C. Atkinson	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
TOR F. Minten	1.1	1	0.28	0	13%	0
TBL N. Perbix	1.0	1	0.30	0	5%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	1	0.32	0	3%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.0	0	0.14	0	3%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.0	0	0.27	0	12%	0
TOR C. Timmins	1.0	1	0.27	0	4%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	2	0.28	0	12%	0
TOR D. Kampf	0.9	0	0.23	0	9%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.19	1	10%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.9	0	0.23	0	13%	0
TOR C. Dewar	0.8	1	0.17	0	7%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	0	0.21	0	2%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.10	0	3%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.7	1	0.12	0	8%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.27	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.