Game Recap: TBL 5, TOR 2, March 7, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL5

FinalSat, Mar 7, 2026Every game that night

TOR2

TBL beat TOR 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.24 expected goals to 2.38. N. Kucherov led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). N. Robertson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	4	0	1	5
TOR	1	0	1	2

1st 4:50TORM. Maccelli0.21 xG
1st 5:36TBLR. McDonagh0.01 xG
1st 12:30TBLJ. Guentzel0.24 xG
1st 13:48TBLC. Perry0.21 xG
1st 15:06TBLO. BjorkstrandPP0.20 xG
3rd 15:41TBLB. HagelEN0.92 xG
3rd 19:29TORN. Robertson0.10 xG

Team Stats

TBLTOR

33Shots on goal29

4.24Expected goals2.38

56Shot attempts46

265v5 shots on goal23

1/4Power play0/3

26Hits22

11Blocked shots11

11Penalty minutes11

12Giveaways15

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 4.24 xGTOR 2.38 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL33 on goal, 5 scored

TOR28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	0	4	4	1	0	0	+3	0	18:36	5:42
B. Hagel	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	18:50	2:28
J. Guentzel	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	17:06	4:59
B. Point	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	16:52	4:57
A. Cirelli	C	0	2	2	5	1	2	+2	0	15:43	1:34
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	14:58	1:41
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	0	1	2	3	1	-1	0	14:56	4:06
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:33	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:01	0:53
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	13:18	0:00
S. Sabourin	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	10:07	0:00
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	2	10:04	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	17:25	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	20:54	1:35
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	5	3	0	+1	2	20:45	5:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	19:45	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	18:44	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	5	16:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	29	27	2	.931	59:19	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	17:53	4:00
N. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	6	2	0	+1	0	15:08	1:37
M. Maccelli	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:07	1:47
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	19:58	4:21
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	-2	0	19:17	4:11
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	19:13	3:50
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	15:18	2:07
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	0	14:06	0:02
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	5	13:39	1:59
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	11:55	0:02
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	11:50	0:02
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	8:44	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	22:11	0:02
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	20:39	3:32
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	2	19:56	0:02
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	18:49	2:26
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	16:07	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	15:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	32	28	4	.875	59:22	Loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1P. Holmberg12:48Y. Gourde13:55O. Bjorkstrand10:38

Line 2J. Guentzel11:38B. Point11:34N. Kucherov11:35

Line 3A. Cirelli10:21B. Hagel12:00Z. Girgensons11:02

Line 4C. Perry12:50C. Geekie9:37S. Sabourin10:07

Pair 1R. McDonagh14:10C. D'Astous16:02

Pair 2E. Cernak16:41V. Hedman15:44

Pair 3D. Raddysh14:37J. Moser15:11

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares14:45M. Knies12:57E. Cowan13:00

Line 2W. Nylander13:01A. Matthews13:45M. Maccelli12:20

Line 3D. Joshua13:23N. Robertson13:31M. Domi11:34

Line 4C. Jarnkrok6:58S. Lorentz7:34J. Quillan6:25

Pair 1S. Benoit13:14T. Stecher13:38

Pair 2J. McCabe17:16B. Carlo16:02

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson15:36M. Rielly15:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDarren Raddysh TOR First game against TBL since he left (his team until May 2026)5 SOG
Old teamPontus Holmberg TBL Faces TOR, his team until May 20250 SOG
HometownAnthony Cirelli TBL Plays near home (born in Etobicoke)2 A, 5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.7, TOR 3.1	TBL 5, TOR 2
Total goals	6.9	7
Shots on goal	TBL 31.4, TOR 27.3	TBL 33, TOR 29
Win chance	TBL 59%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.8	6	1.02	0	42%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.3	1	1.63	4	36%	0
TBL B. Hagel	3.0	3	0.97	2	31%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.9	2	1.03	2	35%	1
TBL D. Raddysh	2.5	5	0.82	0	17%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	2	0.98	1	35%	0
TBL B. Point	2.4	1	0.96	2	35%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.3	2	0.75	0	30%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	2.0	2	0.58	1	20%	1
TBL C. Perry	1.9	4	0.57	1	23%	1
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	1	0.50	0	11%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	2	0.65	0	23%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.6	0	0.47	0	15%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	5	0.52	2	19%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.6	1	0.50	1	17%	1
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	6	0.37	1	18%	1
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	1	0.41	0	8%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.4	0	0.34	0	14%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	1	0.47	0	14%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.4	1	0.23	0	12%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.3	3	0.36	0	14%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.3	2	0.47	0	9%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.2	0	0.18	0	5%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.2	3	0.27	0	6%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	0	0.32	0	6%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.1	1	0.13	0	4%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.0	0	0.23	0	11%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.0	0	0.31	0	5%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	0	0.29	0	15%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.8	2	0.31	1	5%	1
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.8	1	0.23	0	12%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.10	0	2%	0
TOR J. Quillan	0.6	2	0.12	0	7%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.6	1	0.20	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.