UTA beat TBL 6-4, with the chances close: 2.81 expected goals to 2.77. L. Cooley led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Kucherov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. K. Vejmelka stopped 23 of 27.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.77 xGUTA 2.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 4:15 |
| B. Point | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 | 4:16 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:09 | 4:21 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:24 | 1:17 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:09 | 1:00 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:23 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:03 | 3:43 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:29 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:04 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 7 | 7:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 6:56 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:31 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 26:02 | 4:13 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:35 | 0:33 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Halverson | 24 | 19 | 5 | .792 | 57:57 | Loss |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Cooley | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 21:27 | 1:31 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:11 | 1:29 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:05 | 1:33 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Doan | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13:16 | 0:29 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:31 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:33 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:11 | 1:27 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:27 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 19:21 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 22:43 | 1:37 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 21:03 | 0:23 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.4, UTA 3.2 | TBL 4, UTA 6 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 27.7, UTA 29.8 | TBL 27, UTA 25 |
| Win chance | TBL 53% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.8 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.7 | 6 | 1.29 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 5 | 0.89 | 3 | 34% | 1 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 3 | 0.92 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.3 | 1 | 0.88 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 3 | 0.92 | 2 | 36% | 2 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.0 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.73 | 3 | 24% | 1 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.0 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.0 | 5 | 0.66 | 3 | 24% | 2 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 4 | 0.59 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.5 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 0 | 0.48 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 4 | 0.36 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.1 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.