Game Recap: TBL 4, UTA 5 (OT), October 24, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL4

Final/OTSat, Oct 24, 2026Every game that night

UTA5

UTA beat TBL 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.78 expected goals to 3.49. D. Simashev led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Hagel had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. K. Vejmelka stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TBL	3	1	0	0	4
UTA	2	2	0	1	5

1st 5:10TBLJ. Guentzel0.03 xG
1st 7:02UTAK. Yamamoto0.11 xG
1st 10:06TBLP. Holmberg0.04 xG
1st 12:42TBLB. PointPP0.46 xG
1st 17:39UTAD. GuentherPP0.12 xG
2nd 5:32TBLC. Geekie0.24 xG
2nd 14:39UTAA. Lee0.09 xG
2nd 17:02UTAD. Simashev0.06 xG
OT 1:44UTAD. Simashev0.26 xG

Team Stats

TBLUTA

32Shots on goal28

3.49Expected goals3.78

58Shot attempts60

275v5 shots on goal20

1/3Power play1/3

23Hits26

13Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes8

11Giveaways15

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.49 xGUTA 3.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL31 on goal, 4 scored

UTA28 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	2	20:02	4:12
J. Guentzel	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:32	4:18
B. Point	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	18:34	4:16
P. Holmberg	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	14:11	1:04
C. Geekie	C	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	10:09	1:01
S. Sabourin	RW	0	1	1	0	5	1	+1	0	9:26	0:00
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	7	1	1	-3	0	22:51	3:54
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	19:46	1:24
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	16:25	1:07
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	13:17	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	9:06	0:00
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	2	8:51	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	20:58	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	2	20:06	2:09
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	18:30	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	21:41	3:10
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	20:01	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	2	15:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	28	23	5	.821	61:44	OT loss
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Trocheck	C	0	2	2	2	0	1	+2	0	21:02	1:30
D. Guenther	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	19:15	2:57
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	0	1	4	2	2	+3	0	16:31	1:23
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	2	16:07	3:24
B. Hayton	C	0	1	1	3	0	2	+2	0	15:54	0:56
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+2	0	15:53	0:33
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	19:27	3:27
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:58	2:50
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	12:28	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	-1	2	11:18	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	10:06	0:00
D. But	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	6:54	0:00
D. Simashev	D	2	0	2	3	2	0	+2	0	15:53	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	2	26:01	2:47
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	1	6	1	0	0	25:20	1:32
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	20:38	0:01
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	18:50	0:20
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	32	29	4	.906	61:44	Win
S. Cossa	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1A. Cirelli14:45B. Hagel15:43J. Guentzel13:55

Line 2N. Kucherov14:51B. Point13:12G. Goncalves15:18

Line 3P. Holmberg11:56I. Mikheyev10:51Z. Girgensons6:51

Line 4S. Sabourin9:26C. Geekie9:08J. Viel8:51

Pair 1J. Carlson16:49J. Moser15:58

Pair 2R. McDonagh15:24E. Cernak17:16

Pair 3C. D'Astous17:35E. Lilleberg13:56

UTA

Line 1V. Trocheck14:51D. Guenther15:24L. Cooley14:12

Line 2A. Lee15:20B. Hayton13:59K. Yamamoto14:10

Line 3N. Schmaltz10:49L. Crouse10:02C. Keller11:21

Line 4K. Stenlund9:22J. McBain8:23D. But6:54

Pair 1M. Weegar19:32M. Sergachev18:51

Pair 2N. Schmidt15:04A. Peeke17:28

Pair 3N. DeSimone11:18D. Simashev14:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 15 overs hit (60%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	-155	+126	7	Over
UTA C. Keller	2.5	+105	-122	1	Under
UTA D. Guenther	2.5	-135	+115	3	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	+118	-140	2	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	2.5	+150	-195	3	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	2.5	-130	+110	3	Over
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.5	+150	-165	0	Under
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	+126	-135	2	Over
UTA A. Lee	1.5	-140	+130	4	Over
UTA B. Hayton	1.5	-130	+105	3	Over
TBL B. Point	1.5	-164	+135	2	Over
TBL J. Carlson	1.5	-105	+100	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	1.5	-170	+140	0	Under
UTA M. Weegar	1.5	-145	+130	1	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	1.5	-110	-135	2	Over

8 of 34 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+425	-550	0	Under
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+340	-400	1	Over
UTA A. Peeke	0.5	+1500	-3500	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+155	-200	0	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+390	-550	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+240	-275	1	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+725	-1200	1	Over
UTA C. Keller	0.5	+180	-220	0	Under
UTA D. But	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	+165	-190	1	Over
UTA D. Simashev	0.5	+1700	–	2	Over
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+2000	-2800	0	Under
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.5	+2100	–	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+450	-650	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+195	-220	1	Over
UTA J. McBain	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+1100	-4000	0	Under
UTA K. Stenlund	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.5	+370	-500	1	Over
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
UTA L. Crouse	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	+500	-650	0	Under
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+850	-1200	0	Under
UTA N. DeSimone	0.5	+1600	-4000	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+170	-200	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	+190	-250	0	Under
UTA N. Schmidt	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+650	-1000	1	Over
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+330	-550	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under

7 of 18 overs hit (39%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+255	-300	0	Under
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+320	-375	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+144	-165	0	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+265	-380	1	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	+150	-185	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+170	-200	1	Over
UTA C. Keller	0.5	-138	+115	1	Over
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	+132	-175	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+265	-350	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+225	-250	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+125	-150	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	+134	-140	0	Under
UTA L. Crouse	0.5	+380	-550	0	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	-125	+100	1	Over
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+175	-225	1	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	-145	+125	1	Over
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	+122	-140	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+175	-190	2	Over

9 of 18 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
UTA C. Keller	1.5	+186	-210	1	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	1.5	+158	-175	1	Under
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+142	-150	0	Under
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+150	-170	1	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	-175	+145	0	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+145	-170	1	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	-138	+130	1	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+125	-145	1	Over
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	-175	+150	1	Over
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+154	-170	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+160	-165	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	-170	+138	1	Over
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	-155	+130	0	Under
UTA L. Crouse	0.5	+170	-190	0	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	-165	+145	1	Over
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+135	-165	1	Over
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	-170	+150	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+100	-125	2	Over

6 of 19 overs hit (32%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+210	-235	0	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+280	-295	1	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+190	-290	1	Over
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
UTA C. Keller	0.5	+120	-160	1	Over
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	+145	-215	1	Over
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+380	-450	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+190	-210	0	Under
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	+195	-250	0	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	+130	-175	1	Over
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+130	-135	1	Over
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	+200	-295	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
UTA K. Vejmelka	22.5	-125	-105	29	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
UTA M. Weegar	2.5	-115	-120	1	Under
UTA A. Peeke	1.5	-110	-130	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.1, UTA 3.2	TBL 4, UTA 5
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	TBL 25.4, UTA 26.8	TBL 32, UTA 28
Win chance	UTA 52%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.9	3	0.87	1	33%	1
TBL N. Kucherov	2.8	3	1.39	1	35%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.7	7	0.97	0	33%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.4	1	1.00	1	29%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.4	2	0.96	1	35%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	0	0.82	0	28%	0
TBL B. Point	2.1	2	0.92	1	35%	1
UTA M. Sergachev	1.9	3	0.72	1	12%	0
UTA A. Lee	1.9	4	0.43	1	20%	1
UTA L. Cooley	1.8	0	0.81	0	29%	0
UTA M. Weegar	1.8	1	0.40	1	9%	0
TBL J. Carlson	1.7	0	0.52	0	9%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.6	3	0.38	1	15%	0
UTA V. Trocheck	1.5	2	0.61	2	22%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	0	0.43	0	21%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.4	2	0.57	0	21%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.4	2	0.53	0	18%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.3	4	0.42	1	17%	1
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.3	2	0.40	0	19%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.2	3	0.31	1	13%	1
UTA D. But	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	2	0.37	1	7%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	1	0.28	0	7%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	0	0.30	0	12%	0
TBL J. Viel	1.0	0	0.18	0	8%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.0	0	0.22	0	11%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.0	2	0.24	0	5%	0
UTA A. Peeke	1.0	1	0.19	1	5%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.0	1	0.19	1	4%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.0	3	0.24	1	11%	1
UTA D. Simashev	0.9	3	0.11	2	3%	2
UTA K. Stenlund	0.9	1	0.28	0	12%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	0.8	1	0.18	0	4%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.7	1	0.26	1	4%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.6	0	0.17	0	3%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.4	0	0.14	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.