Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
TBL2
VGK4
VGK beat TBL 4-2, with the chances close: 3.82 expected goals to 3.52. A. Pietrangelo led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). B. Hagel had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. I. Samsonov stopped 35 of 37.
Team Stats
TBLVGK
37Shots on goal30
3.52Expected goals3.82
68Shot attempts47
295v5 shots on goal23
1/4Power play1/4
27Hits14
5Blocked shots12
13Penalty minutes13
12Giveaways10
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.52 xGVGK 3.82 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 22:09 | 6:13 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:45 | 3:11 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:10 | 1:02 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:42 | 4:33 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:19 | 5:11 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:00 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 15:10 | 1:36 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:22 | 3:32 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:23 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:17 | 4:58 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 1:39 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:28 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 58:28 | Loss |
| B. Halverson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:04 | 4:41 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 | 2:57 |
| N. Roy | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:04 | 2:16 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:20 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:54 | 1:59 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 3:30 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:42 | 3:56 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:22 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:34 | 2:20 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:12 | 1:46 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:03 | 2:10 |
| N. Hague | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:14 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:27 | 3:59 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 37 | 35 | 2 | .946 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.1, VGK 3.4 | TBL 2, VGK 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 26.0, VGK 30.1 | TBL 37, VGK 30 |
| Win chance | VGK 55% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 2.8 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.7 | 6 | 1.24 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.6 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.3 | 6 | 0.83 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 4 | 0.89 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.0 | 5 | 0.63 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.9 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 4 | 0.84 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.8 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.6 | 4 | 0.43 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.6 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.6 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.3 | 4 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.3 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 0.9 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.6 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.