Game Recap: TBL 6, VGK 3, November 6, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL6

FinalThu, Nov 6, 2025Every game that night

VGK3

TBL beat VGK 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 6.89 expected goals to 3.03. N. Kucherov led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Eichel had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	0	2	4	6
VGK	2	0	1	3

1st 7:25VGKI. Barbashev0.03 xG
1st 15:53VGKI. Barbashev0.26 xG
2nd 0:36TBLG. Goncalves0.16 xG
2nd 3:28TBLD. James0.57 xG
3rd 2:47TBLN. KucherovPP0.38 xG
3rd 3:37VGKM. Marner0.02 xG
3rd 4:12TBLB. Hagel0.19 xG
3rd 14:13TBLN. KucherovPP0.07 xG
3rd 19:13TBLB. HagelEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

TBLVGK

27Shots on goal32

6.89Expected goals3.03

69Shot attempts59

145v5 shots on goal27

2/4Power play0/3

11Hits13

16Blocked shots17

2Penalty minutes6

7Giveaways13

9Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 6.89 xGVGK 3.03 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL27 on goal, 6 scored

VGK31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	2	1	3	5	0	0	+1	0	20:20	5:34
B. Hagel	LW	2	1	3	4	1	1	+1	0	19:15	2:34
D. James	C	1	2	3	1	3	0	+3	0	15:13	2:33
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	2	2	4	1	0	+2	0	17:06	4:58
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	3	2	3	0	0	21:44	5:42
G. Goncalves	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	+3	2	13:50	2:01
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	18:20	0:00
B. Point	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:41	5:02
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	15:54	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	12:59	0:00
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:54	1:52
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	20:34	3:05
J. Moser	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	19:23	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	20:32	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	20:31	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	12:05	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:47	1:35
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	7:52	2:54

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	32	29	3	.906	60:00	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	1	2	3	3	0	0	+1	0	21:35	4:48
I. Barbashev	LW	2	1	3	3	0	0	+1	2	16:28	1:24
J. Eichel	C	0	2	2	7	0	1	+1	0	21:54	4:32
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	19:21	4:37
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:56	4:27
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	16:04	1:30
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:58	0:00
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:10	1:02
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:58	1:23
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:37	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	6:11	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	6:10	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	5	0	1	0	0	23:53	2:26
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	23:53	3:34
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	19:16	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	18:41	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	15:14	0:17
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	2	12:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindbom	26	21	5	.808	58:37	Loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde13:15P. Holmberg12:59Z. Girgensons13:40

Line 2G. Goncalves11:49D. James12:40O. Bjorkstrand12:08

Line 3N. Kucherov13:23B. Point12:39J. Guentzel13:18

Line 4A. Cirelli7:02B. Hagel11:59

Pair 1R. McDonagh15:56E. Cernak15:49

Pair 2V. Hedman14:43J. Moser16:40

Pair 3E. Lilleberg12:05C. D'Astous10:12

VGK

Line 1B. Saad13:25P. Dorofeyev13:21T. Hertl12:06

Line 2J. Eichel14:00I. Barbashev13:41M. Marner13:07

Line 3R. Smith11:51B. Howden12:10W. Karlsson12:17

Line 4C. Sissons6:20K. Kolesar6:10C. Reinhardt6:11

Pair 1N. Hanifin18:38Z. Whitecloud16:25

Pair 2B. McNabb13:55S. Theodore14:11

Pair 3K. Korczak14:57J. Lauzon12:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 2.8, VGK 3.1	TBL 6, VGK 3
Total goals	5.9	9
Shots on goal	TBL 24.5, VGK 29.0	TBL 27, VGK 32
Win chance	VGK 55%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.2	7	1.03	2	31%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.1	2	0.63	0	32%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	2.9	5	1.26	3	31%	2
TBL B. Hagel	2.6	4	0.87	3	29%	2
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	3	0.85	1	32%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.4	1	0.71	0	27%	0
TBL B. Point	2.2	1	0.85	0	34%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.2	0	0.66	0	11%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.0	5	0.44	1	11%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	1.9	5	0.52	0	20%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.9	3	1.10	3	28%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	0	0.61	0	23%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.7	0	0.62	1	11%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.6	2	0.37	0	18%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.6	4	0.46	2	18%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.5	2	0.41	0	16%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	3	0.57	3	21%	2
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	3	0.42	0	14%	0
TBL D. James	1.4	1	0.20	3	11%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.3	0	0.39	0	18%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	0	0.25	0	5%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	0	0.18	0	10%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.1	0	0.22	0	3%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	0	0.13	0	4%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.0	0	0.26	0	10%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.0	2	0.26	0	4%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	0	0.31	0	4%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	0.9	1	0.26	0	5%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	0	0.18	0	6%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.9	0	0.21	1	5%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	1	0.19	0	3%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	2	0.33	1	11%	1
VGK C. Sissons	0.9	1	0.21	0	8%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	1	0.23	0	9%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.7	0	0.19	0	10%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.5	0	0.14	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.