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Game Recap
TBL6
FinalTue, Oct 20, 2026Every game that night
VGK2

TBL beat VGK 6-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.98 expected goals to 4.28. VGK outshot TBL 34 to 21. N. Kucherov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Marner had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
TBL2316
VGK2002
  1. 1st 4:11TBLB. HagelPP0.11 xG
  2. 1st 13:16VGKI. Barbashev0.07 xG
  3. 1st 14:04TBLJ. Carlson0.27 xG
  4. 1st 18:30VGKM. StoneSH0.21 xG
  5. 2nd 6:44TBLA. Cirelli0.37 xG
  6. 2nd 10:09TBLA. Cirelli0.20 xG
  7. 2nd 17:56TBLV. Hedman0.01 xG
  8. 3rd 5:16TBLN. Kucherov0.27 xG

Team Stats

TBLVGK
21Shots on goal34
2.98Expected goals4.28
56Shot attempts62
175v5 shots on goal25
1/3Power play0/4
13Hits24
13Blocked shots17
8Penalty minutes6
22Giveaways18
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.98 xGVGK 4.28 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdTBL goal, 4:11VGK goal, 13:16TBL goal, 14:04VGK goal, 18:30TBL goal, 6:44TBL goal, 10:09TBL goal, 17:56TBL goal, 5:16

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL21 on goal, 6 scored
VGK34 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. KucherovRW123200+3018:192:22
A. CirelliC202200+1010:301:37
B. HagelLW101300+2018:551:25
J. GuentzelC000002+3018:162:20
I. MikheyevRW0002000017:370:00
Z. GirgensonsC0002120017:210:00
B. PointC000100+2016:392:21
G. GoncalvesC0000000015:270:40
C. GeekieC000131-1214:330:42
P. HolmbergRW000112-2213:400:41
J. VielLW0000310012:560:00
J. CarlsonD101401+3017:460:36
V. HedmanD101202+2016:520:00
C. D'AstousD011001-2212:522:26
E. CernakD0000310020:300:00
R. McDonaghD0000000017:420:00
J. MoserD000100+3017:050:00
E. LillebergD000020+1215:030:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Vasilevskiy34322.94159:57Win
D. Hildeby000–0:00

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. StoneRW1012010018:295:05
M. MarnerRW011501-2217:275:10
I. BarbashevLW1012200016:071:19
B. BowmanRW0112000012:051:18
J. EichelC0000010019:335:03
T. HertlC0005200017:134:39
T. ConnellyLW0001010016:174:39
W. KarlssonC000300-3016:001:20
B. HowdenC000160-3014:500:02
M. GatcombC000150-1012:460:00
N. DowdC000030-1012:130:00
R. LavoieC0001100011:570:00
S. TheodoreD000303-1020:361:18
R. AnderssonD000102-2019:251:44
N. HanifinD0001020019:160:00
J. LauzonD000253-1017:520:18
B. McNabbD000201-1217:460:00
D. CoghlanD000202-1215:430:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hart21156.71459:46Loss
A. Hill000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1Z. Girgensons14:23I. Mikheyev13:54P. Holmberg12:52
Line 2C. Geekie13:44J. Viel12:56G. Goncalves14:47
Line 3J. Guentzel13:57B. Point13:37N. Kucherov14:41
Line 4A. Cirelli6:47B. Hagel13:37
Pair 1R. McDonagh14:12E. Cernak16:52
Pair 2J. Carlson16:09J. Moser13:08
Pair 3V. Hedman13:12E. Lilleberg14:20

VGK

Line 1M. Stone11:55J. Eichel12:55I. Barbashev14:34
Line 2T. Hertl12:32T. Connelly11:38R. Lavoie11:57
Line 3B. Howden13:25W. Karlsson12:20M. Marner11:32
Line 4N. Dowd10:25M. Gatcomb12:39B. Bowman10:08
Pair 1B. McNabb15:58S. Theodore16:31
Pair 2N. Hanifin17:23D. Coghlan15:43
Pair 3J. Lauzon16:00R. Andersson15:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 19 overs hit (58%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
TBL B. Hagel2.5-155+1253Over
VGK J. Eichel2.5-140+1200Under
TBL J. Guentzel2.5+130-1400Under
VGK M. Marner2.5+150-1705Over
TBL N. Kucherov2.5-140+1152Under
VGK T. Hertl2.5+150-1655Over
TBL A. Cirelli1.5+110-1402Over
VGK B. Howden1.5+110-1401Under
VGK B. McNabb1.5+160-2202Over
TBL B. Point1.5-168+1401Under
VGK D. Coghlan1.5+125-1602Over
VGK I. Barbashev1.5+100-1352Over
TBL J. Carlson1.5-128+1054Over
VGK M. Gatcomb1.5+130-1701Under
VGK M. Stone1.5-150+1362Over
VGK R. Andersson1.5-118+1001Under
VGK S. Theodore1.5-105-1153Over
VGK T. Connelly1.5-155+1251Under
VGK W. Karlsson1.5-155+1323Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreTBL 3.1, VGK 2.9TBL 6, VGK 2
Total goals5.98
Shots on goalTBL 26.5, VGK 26.1TBL 21, VGK 34
Win chanceTBL 53%TBL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
TBL B. Hagel3.031.00135%1
TBL N. Kucherov3.021.37335%1
VGK J. Eichel2.500.98027%0
TBL J. Guentzel2.500.91033%0
VGK T. Hertl2.050.61023%0
VGK M. Marner2.050.95126%0
TBL B. Point2.010.81032%0
VGK T. Connelly1.810.48017%0
VGK M. Stone1.820.82127%1
VGK W. Karlsson1.730.52020%0
TBL J. Carlson1.740.54110%1
VGK S. Theodore1.730.54011%0
TBL A. Cirelli1.620.62223%2
VGK R. Andersson1.610.3709%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.420.54119%1
VGK D. Coghlan1.420.1603%0
VGK M. Gatcomb1.410.21012%0
VGK B. Howden1.410.44021%0
TBL I. Mikheyev1.320.39018%0
TBL P. Holmberg1.310.32013%0
VGK B. Bowman1.320.39114%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.210.2906%0
TBL G. Goncalves1.200.43015%0
VGK J. Lauzon1.120.1404%0
TBL V. Hedman1.120.3315%1
VGK B. McNabb1.020.2705%0
VGK R. Lavoie1.010.1507%0
TBL Z. Girgensons1.020.21010%0
TBL J. Moser1.010.2505%0
TBL C. Geekie0.910.22010%0
TBL C. D'Astous0.900.2715%0
TBL E. Cernak0.900.1904%0
VGK N. Dowd0.800.24011%0
TBL R. McDonagh0.600.2503%0

Shots on goal: 26 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.