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Game Recap
TBL3
WSH1
TBL beat WSH 3-1, with the chances close: 3.09 expected goals to 2.46. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 17:11TBLM. ChaffeePP0.58 xG
- 3rd 6:08TBLG. Goncalves0.06 xG
- 3rd 16:01WSHA. Ovechkin0.16 xG
- 3rd 19:01TBLB. HagelEN0.77 xG
Team Stats
TBLWSH
19Shots on goal21
3.09Expected goals2.46
32Shot attempts60
115v5 shots on goal18
1/3Power play0/3
11Hits14
19Blocked shots7
8Penalty minutes8
10Giveaways16
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.09 xGWSH 2.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:25 | 2:30 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:55 | 3:26 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:03 | 3:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:29 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:16 | 1:18 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:02 | 1:22 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:05 | 2:57 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:59 | 1:28 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 21:44 | 0:10 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:35 | 2:42 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 | 0:10 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:50 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:56 | 1:48 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 59:35 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:38 | 4:18 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:59 | 3:04 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:24 | 3:19 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 | 3:35 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:41 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:45 | 0:45 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:01 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:25 | 1:02 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:57 | 1:01 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:13 | 3:23 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:15 | 1:17 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:15 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 58:57 | Loss |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.1, WSH 3.1 | TBL 3, WSH 1 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 27.0, WSH 27.9 | TBL 19, WSH 21 |
| Win chance | WSH 51% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.7 | 3 | 0.90 | 1 | 39% | 1 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.1 | 0 | 1.33 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 2 | 0.86 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.6 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.6 | 4 | 0.89 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.2 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 2.0 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.0 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.9 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.9 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.6 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.4 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.