Game Recap: TBL 5, WSH 3, November 22, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL5

FinalSat, Nov 22, 2025Every game that night

WSH3

TBL beat WSH 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.59 expected goals to 4.14. WSH outshot TBL 32 to 16. B. Hagel led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). J. Sourdif had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Johansson stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	4	0	1	5
WSH	1	1	1	3

1st 1:06WSHJ. Sourdif0.75 xG
1st 2:53TBLB. HagelSH0.07 xG
1st 5:21TBLO. BjorkstrandPP0.23 xG
1st 11:36TBLB. Hagel0.17 xG
1st 18:19TBLN. Kucherov0.22 xG
2nd 5:26WSHJ. Chychrun0.01 xG
3rd 5:24WSHE. Frank0.08 xG
3rd 15:51TBLA. Cirelli0.22 xG

Team Stats

TBLWSH

16Shots on goal32

2.59Expected goals4.14

39Shot attempts72

105v5 shots on goal26

1/3Power play0/6

15Hits22

23Blocked shots13

27Penalty minutes11

19Giveaways16

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.59 xGWSH 4.14 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL16 on goal, 5 scored

WSH32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Hagel	LW	2	2	4	5	1	1	+3	2	19:44	2:43
N. Kucherov	RW	1	2	3	2	0	0	+1	2	5:18	0:42
A. Cirelli	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	2	15:06	1:23
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:28	3:25
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	0	1	2	2	1	-2	0	12:10	1:39
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:23	0:29
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:36	1:57
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:23	0:00
D. James	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:08	1:08
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	12:06	0:25
B. Point	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:29	1:20
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17	5:02	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	2	24:46	0:03
E. Cernak	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	+1	0	23:24	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	1	1	0	0	6	-1	0	18:49	1:05
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	17:54	2:45
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	+2	2	19:56	0:06
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	11:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	32	29	3	.906	60:00	Win
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	0	1	1	2	7	0	-1	5	17:50	4:16
J. Sourdif	C	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0	13:32	0:14
E. Frank	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	2	13:06	2:20
S. Milano	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	9:17	0:17
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	23:25	6:20
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	4	4	0	-2	0	23:04	7:04
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	16:49	0:08
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:17	2:21
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	15:38	4:04
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:32	1:23
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	9:45	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	7:14	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	1	1	2	2	1	1	-2	2	25:29	6:09
M. Fehérváry	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	16:04	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	-1	0	25:20	6:14
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	18:03	2:32
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	17:21	0:23
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	15:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	6	2	4	.333	18:19	Loss
C. Lindgren	10	9	1	.900	38:50

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde13:26Z. Girgensons12:19C. Douglas5:02

Line 2O. Bjorkstrand10:31G. Goncalves11:41N. Paul14:02

Line 3A. Cirelli8:56B. Hagel11:23J. Guentzel13:44

Line 4B. Point9:58D. James12:08

Pair 1J. Moser17:12E. Cernak16:20

Pair 2C. D'Astous13:00E. Lilleberg14:22

Pair 3D. Raddysh13:27D. Carlile10:36

WSH

Line 1A. Ovechkin13:09D. Strome13:23A. Beauvillier10:51

Line 2A. Protas13:42J. Sourdif10:59T. Wilson10:11

Line 3S. Milano9:00H. Lapierre9:45E. Frank10:29

Line 4R. Leonard11:17C. McMichael9:12B. Duhaime5:43

Pair 1J. Chychrun15:09M. Roy14:40

Pair 2R. Sandin13:26T. Riemsdyk14:32

Pair 3J. Carlson14:12M. Fehérváry13:00

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJohn Carlson TBL First game back in Washington, his team until Feb 20263 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.1, WSH 3.1	TBL 5, WSH 3
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	TBL 25.9, WSH 27.8	TBL 16, WSH 32
Win chance	WSH 51%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.1	2	1.39	3	34%	1
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.8	4	0.84	0	35%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.7	1	0.96	1	36%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.7	2	0.58	2	19%	1
TBL B. Point	2.3	0	0.91	0	36%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.2	5	0.73	4	25%	2
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	2	0.75	1	30%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.1	0	0.37	0	16%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.9	0	0.66	0	22%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.9	3	0.61	0	12%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	3	0.54	0	22%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.8	2	0.59	1	21%	1
WSH D. Strome	1.8	2	0.88	0	26%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.8	3	0.36	0	15%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.8	1	0.45	0	21%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.7	0	0.53	1	10%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	2	0.56	2	21%	1
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	0	0.42	0	14%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.4	1	0.29	0	6%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.2	5	0.23	1	14%	1
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	1	0.19	0	11%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	1	0.35	0	7%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	1	0.27	1	7%	0
TBL D. James	1.1	1	0.33	0	12%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.0	0	0.26	1	6%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.0	3	0.33	1	12%	1
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	0	0.34	0	12%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	0.9	0	0.30	1	6%	0
WSH S. Milano	0.9	0	0.30	1	14%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	1	0.21	1	4%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.8	1	0.22	0	11%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	0	0.23	0	4%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.7	1	0.24	0	7%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.6	0	0.15	0	5%	0
TBL C. Douglas	0.5	0	0.14	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.