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Game Recap
TOR3
ANA2
TOR beat ANA 3-2, with the chances close: 3.06 expected goals to 3.05. ANA outshot TOR 31 to 23. J. Woll stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| ANA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 19:24TORM. Domi0.14 xG
- 2nd 6:29TORM. Marner0.23 xG
- 2nd 7:50ANAL. Carlsson0.04 xG
- 3rd 2:16ANAS. ColangeloPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 11:35TORS. Lorentz0.05 xG
Team Stats
TORANA
23Shots on goal31
3.06Expected goals3.05
54Shot attempts76
205v5 shots on goal22
0/2Power play1/4
20Hits5
22Blocked shots9
8Penalty minutes4
16Giveaways16
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 3.06 xGANA 3.05 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:02 | 3:24 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:10 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Domi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:06 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:58 | 0:00 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:13 | 3:48 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:51 | 3:50 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:17 | 3:54 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:04 | 3:46 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:14 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 7:07 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 18:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:09 | 0:36 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:12 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 59:53 | Win |
| A. Stolarz | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:17 | 4:19 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:17 | 4:21 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 4:19 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 | 4:20 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:51 | 2:24 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:46 | 2:18 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:45 | 2:22 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:34 | 2:27 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:06 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:08 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:04 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 25:05 | 4:40 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:55 | 2:13 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:39 | 0:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 17:35 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:00 |
| O. Kylington | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:14 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.4, ANA 3.3 | TOR 3, ANA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 30.0, ANA 30.0 | TOR 23, ANA 31 |
| Win chance | TOR 52% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.1 | 1 | 1.20 | 0 | 45% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.0 | 2 | 1.02 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.6 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.5 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.3 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.2 | 4 | 0.72 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.2 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.0 | 3 | 1.16 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| TOR M. Knies | 2.0 | 4 | 0.70 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 1.9 | 4 | 0.67 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.9 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.6 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.5 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.5 | 4 | 0.61 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.5 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA O. Kylington | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.7 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.