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Game Recap
TOR5
Final/OTMon, Mar 30, 2026Every game that night
ANA4

TOR beat ANA 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 4.33 expected goals to 4.51. W. Nylander led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). W. Nylander had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. A. Stolarz stopped 28 of 32.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
TOR10315
ANA21104
  1. 1st 6:43ANAL. Carlsson0.14 xG
  2. 1st 9:46ANAC. GauthierPP0.03 xG
  3. 1st 14:18TORJ. TavaresPP0.39 xG
  4. 2nd 11:33ANAJ. Carlson0.11 xG
  5. 3rd 6:55TORM. KniesPP0.07 xG
  6. 3rd 10:14TORW. Nylander0.19 xG
  7. 3rd 17:00TORM. Rielly0.18 xG
  8. 3rd 18:21ANAL. Carlsson0.11 xG
  9. OT 4:55TORJ. Tavares0.22 xG

Team Stats

TORANA
29Shots on goal32
4.33Expected goals4.51
57Shot attempts76
175v5 shots on goal22
2/4Power play1/6
28Hits15
15Blocked shots10
64Penalty minutes32
14Giveaways23
4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 4.33 xGANA 4.51 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdOTANA goal, 6:43ANA goal, 9:46TOR goal, 14:18ANA goal, 11:33TOR goal, 6:55TOR goal, 10:14TOR goal, 17:00ANA goal, 18:21TOR goal, 4:55

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR29 on goal, 5 scored
ANA32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
W. NylanderRW1348000223:353:07
J. TavaresC213430+1021:043:07
E. CowanRW022311+3219:083:06
M. KniesLW101140-2219:113:08
B. GroulxC0002310019:340:48
C. JarnkrokC0001000016:510:51
D. JoshuaC0000500014:200:00
N. RobertsonLW0001000014:140:53
M. MaccelliLW000000-1012:480:52
J. QuillanC0001100012:190:00
M. DomiC000001-1207:060:00
M. PezzettaLW0000400223:060:00
M. RiellyD112212+2023:101:18
O. Ekman-LarssonD022203+1018:322:44
B. CarloD0001010021:500:00
J. McCabeD000123-21620:090:00
T. StecherD000001-3020:060:00
S. BenoitD000242+1017:020:01
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Stolarz32284.87564:45Win
J. Woll000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. CarlssonC202402+2218:465:44
M. GranlundC011100-2024:536:35
C. KreiderLW011311+1222:016:06
T. TerryRW011200+2020:013:55
B. SenneckeRW0113200015:500:21
C. GauthierLW101100003:202:50
A. KillornLW000020-2018:370:52
T. WasheC0001210015:370:00
R. PoehlingC000201+1215:130:20
M. McTavishC000000-1014:011:21
J. VielLW000430-1211:451:12
J. LaCombeD022131+1024:531:40
J. CarlsonD101402+1026:475:44
J. TroubaD011200-1025:500:32
O. ZellwegerD011001+1013:180:00
P. MintyukovD000210-1718:200:03
I. MooreD0002110013:060:00
R. GudasD0000000177:050:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
V. Husso29245.82864:55OT loss
L. Dostal000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares14:26E. Cowan14:55W. Nylander17:03
Line 2B. Groulx13:06M. Maccelli10:58M. Knies12:42
Line 3N. Robertson12:39D. Joshua14:10M. Domi7:06
Line 4C. Jarnkrok10:15J. Quillan9:51M. Pezzetta3:06
Pair 1M. Rielly18:26B. Carlo16:35
Pair 2T. Stecher16:59J. McCabe14:58
Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson13:36S. Benoit13:09

ANA

Line 1A. Killorn14:22B. Sennecke15:03M. Granlund13:27
Line 2T. Terry13:23L. Carlsson10:54C. Kreider14:20
Line 3T. Washe12:59M. McTavish12:40
Line 4J. Viel10:33R. Poehling10:54
Pair 1J. LaCombe19:07J. Trouba20:32
Pair 2J. Carlson18:18P. Mintyukov15:23
Pair 3O. Zellweger12:26R. Gudas7:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreTOR 3.1, ANA 3.6TOR 5, ANA 4
Total goals6.79
Shots on goalTOR 26.4, ANA 35.1TOR 29, ANA 32
Win chanceANA 57%TOR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier3.810.86132%1
TOR W. Nylander2.781.14439%1
ANA L. Carlsson2.540.86226%2
ANA T. Terry2.520.87126%0
TOR J. Tavares2.540.85332%2
ANA B. Sennecke2.430.69122%0
ANA J. Carlson2.440.80115%1
ANA C. Kreider2.230.76133%0
ANA M. Granlund2.210.77122%0
ANA A. Killorn2.100.56023%0
ANA J. Trouba2.120.38110%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.910.64213%0
TOR M. Knies1.810.75126%1
TOR N. Robertson1.810.48022%0
ANA M. McTavish1.700.48018%0
TOR M. Rielly1.720.54211%1
TOR E. Cowan1.630.49218%0
ANA J. Viel1.640.26010%0
ANA R. Poehling1.520.53017%0
ANA O. Zellweger1.500.2418%0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.520.50210%0
TOR M. Maccelli1.500.56017%0
TOR M. Domi1.500.53015%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.320.35010%0
ANA T. Washe1.310.23011%0
TOR B. Carlo1.210.1804%0
TOR J. McCabe1.210.4007%0
TOR D. Joshua1.100.39018%0
TOR T. Stecher1.100.2005%0
TOR B. Groulx1.020.21010%0
ANA I. Moore1.020.2006%0
ANA R. Gudas1.000.1904%0
TOR C. Jarnkrok1.010.28013%0
TOR S. Benoit0.820.1303%0
TOR J. Quillan0.810.1609%0
TOR M. Pezzetta0.600.1406%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.