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Game Recap
TOR5
BOS4
TOR beat BOS 5-4 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 3.80 expected goals to 4.35. M. Rielly led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). M. Lohrei had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Stolarz stopped 32 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| BOS | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 0:29BOSD. Pastrnak0.15 xG
- 1st 13:59BOSB. MarchandPP0.24 xG
- 2nd 10:00BOSM. GeekiePP0.33 xG
- 2nd 13:52TORM. Rielly0.03 xG
- 3rd 0:59TORM. MarnerPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 6:40TORN. Robertson0.06 xG
- 3rd 10:33BOSD. Pastrnak0.13 xG
- 3rd 19:14TORP. Holmberg0.25 xG
- OT 4:08TORM. Marner0.47 xG
Team Stats
TORBOS
29Shots on goal36
3.80Expected goals4.35
63Shot attempts67
195v5 shots on goal21
1/4Power play2/6
30Hits20
11Blocked shots13
12Penalty minutes6
18Giveaways22
9Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 3.80 xGBOS 4.35 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:41 | 4:18 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:10 | 1:31 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:41 | 4:10 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:55 | 4:18 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 17:21 | 2:42 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:56 | 0:22 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:21 | 4:29 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 14:41 | 1:29 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 1:26 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:41 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 27:42 | 3:08 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 27:25 | 1:49 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 25:17 | 0:01 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:12 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 36 | 32 | 4 | .889 | 62:52 | Win |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:39 | 5:45 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:39 | 4:52 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:00 | 4:26 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:25 | 2:39 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:12 | 4:52 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:53 | 2:54 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:54 | 2:02 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 7:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 7:30 | 0:00 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5:45 | 1:06 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:18 | 1:02 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 22:05 | 5:27 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:44 | 0:01 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:42 | 1:59 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Callahan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 29 | 24 | 5 | .828 | 64:08 | OT loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 2.9, BOS 2.8 | TOR 5, BOS 4 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 28.5, BOS 27.6 | TOR 29, BOS 36 |
| Win chance | TOR 50% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.3 | 6 | 1.25 | 3 | 43% | 2 |
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.1 | 4 | 1.07 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.4 | 1 | 0.98 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.0 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.6 | 4 | 0.81 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.5 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.2 | 5 | 0.61 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.2 | 4 | 1.08 | 2 | 26% | 2 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 2.0 | 6 | 0.62 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.9 | 0 | 0.72 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 4 | 8% | 1 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.7 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.6 | 4 | 0.32 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.6 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.6 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS O. Wahlstrom | 1.4 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 1.2 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.2 | 6 | 0.47 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR A. Steeves | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.6 | 2 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS M. Callahan | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.