Game Recap: TOR 2, CBJ 1 (OT), November 26, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR2

Final/OTWed, Nov 26, 2025Every game that night

CBJ1

TOR beat CBJ 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.60 expected goals to 4.08. CBJ outshot TOR 36 to 24. W. Nylander led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Fantilli had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. J. Woll stopped 35 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TOR	0	0	1	1	2
CBJ	0	0	1	0	1

3rd 13:30CBJZ. Werenski0.05 xG
3rd 16:43TORE. Cowan0.02 xG
OT 4:40TORW. Nylander0.16 xG

Team Stats

TORCBJ

24Shots on goal36

2.60Expected goals4.08

53Shot attempts68

165v5 shots on goal27

0/2Power play0/3

21Hits20

13Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes6

19Giveaways14

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.60 xGCBJ 4.08 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR24 on goal, 2 scored

CBJ36 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	20:18	2:40
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	2	3	0	-1	0	21:25	2:49
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	18:33	2:42
E. Cowan	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	18:02	2:46
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	24:35	2:59
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:24	1:20
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	14:21	1:13
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:57	0:25
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:53	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:38	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	10:33	0:50
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:15	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	4	21:30	1:01
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	+1	0	25:12	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	24:55	1:15
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:45	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	15:09	0:00
D. Mermis	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	11:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	36	35	1	.972	64:28	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Wood	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	4	15:52	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	21:33	3:58
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	7	0	0	-1	0	20:21	3:57
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	18:29	2:06
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:50	3:41
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	5	3	2	0	0	17:14	1:50
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:45	4:02
L. Pinelli	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:20	2:07
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	14:52	0:00
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:30	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	9:14	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	8:59	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	0	1	6	0	1	-1	0	28:40	5:18
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	28:29	2:19
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:03	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:39	0:42
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:15	0:00
B. Smith	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	24	22	2	.917	64:40	OT loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews16:43M. Knies14:53M. Domi14:04

Line 2J. Tavares14:23W. Nylander15:24E. Cowan14:17

Line 3N. Roy12:00B. McMann12:32N. Robertson9:43

Line 4S. Laughton9:49S. Lorentz8:47C. Jarnkrok6:24

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson18:59M. Rielly19:44

Pair 2J. McCabe20:14S. Benoit17:34

Pair 3T. Stecher12:44D. Mermis10:46

CBJ

Line 1C. Coyle13:48I. Lundestrom14:05M. Wood14:21

Line 2D. Voronkov12:43A. Fantilli14:15K. Johnson12:33

Line 3C. Sillinger13:58L. Pinelli13:23S. Monahan13:09

Line 4B. Gaunce9:22E. Chinakhov8:59Z. Aston-Reese8:45

Pair 1I. Provorov21:30Z. Werenski20:20

Pair 2D. Severson16:57D. Mateychuk16:00

Pair 3B. Smith10:55D. Fabbro13:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.4, CBJ 3.4	TOR 2, CBJ 1
Total goals	6.7	3
Shots on goal	TOR 28.6, CBJ 31.6	TOR 24, CBJ 36
Win chance	CBJ 50%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.6	3	1.03	0	42%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	6	0.95	1	20%	1
TOR J. Tavares	3.2	3	1.03	1	38%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.0	3	1.15	2	40%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.8	7	0.84	0	32%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.4	2	0.87	1	30%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.2	0	0.68	0	26%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.1	4	0.76	0	23%	0
TOR E. Cowan	2.1	3	0.55	1	17%	1
CBJ M. Wood	2.0	3	0.35	1	16%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.0	1	0.41	0	21%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.9	1	0.47	0	22%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	2	0.71	0	13%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.9	5	0.45	0	15%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.7	3	0.48	0	11%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.6	0	0.54	0	19%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.6	2	0.50	1	10%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.5	1	0.47	0	19%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	0	0.48	0	14%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	0	0.50	0	18%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.5	0	0.32	0	14%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	1	0.34	0	14%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.2	0	0.42	0	13%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	0	0.41	0	10%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.2	0	0.21	0	10%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.2	1	0.28	0	12%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.1	0	0.34	0	15%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	0	0.26	0	6%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.37	0	7%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.0	2	0.19	0	8%	0
CBJ B. Smith	0.9	2	0.22	0	5%	0
TOR T. Stecher	0.9	1	0.13	0	4%	0
TOR D. Mermis	0.9	0	0.17	0	6%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.9	0	0.15	0	3%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	2	0.18	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.