Game Recap: TOR 6, CBJ 2, October 20, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR6

FinalTue, Oct 20, 2026Every game that night

CBJ2

TOR beat CBJ 6-2, with the chances close: 2.60 expected goals to 3.08. CBJ outshot TOR 37 to 22. J. Roslovic led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). Z. Werenski had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.8. A. Stolarz stopped 35 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	1	4	1	6
CBJ	1	0	1	2

1st 2:38CBJJ. Christiansen0.11 xG
1st 8:16TORK. MarchenkoPP0.44 xG
2nd 2:26TORW. Nylander0.04 xG
2nd 3:12TORA. Matthews0.11 xG
2nd 6:48TORE. CowanSH0.08 xG
2nd 12:03TORJ. Roslovic0.04 xG
3rd 4:13CBJC. Coyle0.05 xG
3rd 16:58TORM. Rifai0.02 xG

Team Stats

TORCBJ

22Shots on goal37

2.60Expected goals3.08

42Shot attempts65

145v5 shots on goal24

1/5Power play0/6

14Hits31

15Blocked shots5

27Penalty minutes15

18Giveaways12

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.60 xGCBJ 3.08 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR21 on goal, 6 scored

CBJ38 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Roslovic	C	1	2	3	2	1	1	+3	0	15:42	2:21
E. Cowan	RW	1	2	3	2	0	0	+3	0	13:38	2:22
W. Nylander	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	17:56	3:59
A. Matthews	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+3	0	17:06	4:17
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	19:17	4:22
C. Sissons	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	14:23	0:17
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:50	0:19
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	16:03	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:35	0:00
G. McKenna	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:58	4:05
V. Lettieri	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	2	8:47	1:58
Z. MacEwen	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	17	5:16	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	3	3	0	0	4	+2	2	22:46	2:17
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	+1	0	23:20	2:18
M. Rifai	D	1	0	1	2	0	4	0	2	19:14	0:09
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+3	0	26:25	0:33
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:29	3:53
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	37	35	2	.946	60:00	Win
A. Akhtyamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	23:02	7:59
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	-1	0	13:29	0:09
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	12:27	0:38
D. Voronkov	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	4	10:02	1:37
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	6	2	0	-2	0	21:21	8:53
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	2	18:36	7:55
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	4	17:09	7:42
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	16:13	0:09
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:13	1:47
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	12:15	1:36
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:54	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	11:10	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	-1	0	16:05	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	10:22	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	8	3	1	-1	0	27:11	8:48
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:50	0:15
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	20:25	0:44
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	5	14:20	0:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	19	14	5	.737	32:02	Loss
C. Talbot	3	2	1	.667	27:57

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1W. Nylander11:51K. Marchenko14:55N. Paul11:22

Line 2J. Roslovic12:08A. Matthews11:23E. Cowan9:46

Line 3T. Blueger10:22B. Duhaime11:10Z. MacEwen5:16

Line 4C. Sissons9:50V. Lettieri6:39G. McKenna8:53

Pair 1M. Rielly14:47T. Stecher19:16

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson15:11D. Raddysh13:44

CBJ

Line 1M. Olivier11:51C. Sillinger11:25C. Coyle11:45

Line 2M. Knies10:13A. Fantilli10:19K. Johnson9:27

Line 3C. Garland10:27R. Lomberg11:10L. Belluz11:43

Line 4S. Monahan8:20D. Voronkov8:25V. Nichushkin9:25

Pair 1J. Christiansen14:09D. Severson16:41

Pair 2E. Gudbranson11:32E. Andrae10:22

Pair 3Z. Werenski14:23D. Mateychuk15:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 20 overs hit (45%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	+125	-145	3	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	+110	-125	8	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	2.5	+150	-175	2	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	2.5	+100	-120	1	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	2.5	+130	-155	0	Under
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	-115	-105	2	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	2.5	+150	-185	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	+102	-120	2	Under
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	+105	-115	1	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.5	-130	+100	2	Over
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.5	-110	-110	3	Over
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	-115	-110	1	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.5	+105	-120	2	Over
TOR E. Cowan	1.5	-120	-110	2	Over
TOR J. Roslovic	1.5	-145	+130	2	Over
TOR M. Knies	1.5	-155	+126	3	Over
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	-110	-120	2	Over
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	+125	-150	0	Under
TOR N. Paul	1.5	+105	-120	2	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	1.5	-125	+112	1	Under

8 of 34 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+170	-200	1	Over
TOR B. Duhaime	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+280	-390	1	Over
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+470	-650	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+475	-550	0	Under
TOR C. Sissons	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+360	-600	0	Under
TOR E. Andrae	0.5	+2000	-10000	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+400	-500	1	Over
CBJ E. Gudbranson	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.5	+1900	-3500	1	Over
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+333	-390	1	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+250	-330	0	Under
CBJ K. Marchenko	0.5	+210	-280	1	Over
CBJ L. Belluz	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
TOR M. Knies	0.5	+195	-250	0	Under
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	+440	-750	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+1200	-1600	0	Under
TOR M. Rifai	0.5	+2200	-10000	1	Over
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+440	-750	0	Under
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
CBJ R. Lomberg	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+325	-390	0	Under
TOR T. Blueger	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
TOR T. Stecher	0.5	+2500	-3500	0	Under
TOR V. Lettieri	0.5	+500	–	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+230	-285	1	Over
TOR Z. MacEwen	0.5	+1400	-2500	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+290	-475	0	Under

9 of 21 overs hit (43%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+112	-125	1	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+270	-300	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+300	-450	1	Over
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+195	-260	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+140	-150	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+360	-525	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+240	-340	2	Over
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+290	-425	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+215	-250	2	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+145	-165	0	Under
CBJ K. Marchenko	0.5	+168	-180	0	Under
TOR M. Knies	0.5	+150	-180	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+205	-250	3	Over
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+260	-370	0	Under
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+320	-450	1	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+205	-275	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+230	-310	1	Over
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+112	-140	1	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-130	+115	0	Under

11 of 21 overs hit (52%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	-200	+175	2	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	-115	+100	1	Over
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+140	-160	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+160	-190	1	Over
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+135	-170	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	-110	-110	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+165	-190	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+135	-150	3	Over
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+130	-135	3	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	-132	+120	0	Under
CBJ K. Marchenko	0.5	-136	+125	1	Over
TOR M. Knies	0.5	-145	+115	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+180	-210	3	Over
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+260	-370	1	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+110	-130	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+120	-145	1	Over
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	-175	+140	2	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-200	+180	0	Under

3 of 15 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+195	-260	1	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+325	-400	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+325	-450	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
CBJ K. Marchenko	0.5	+325	-400	1	Over
TOR M. Knies	0.5	+275	-400	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+270	-280	1	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+140	-185	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
TOR A. Stolarz	28.5	-105	-125	35	Over
CBJ J. Greaves	24.5	-105	-106	14	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
TOR J. McCabe	2.5	+110	-150	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	-105	-135	0	Under
TOR T. Stecher	1.5	-115	-125	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	1.5	-110	-125	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKirill Marchenko TOR Faces CBJ, his team until Apr 20261 G, 2 SOG
HometownJack Roslovic TOR Plays in his hometown1 G, 2 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.7, CBJ 3.5	TOR 6, CBJ 2
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	TOR 24.7, CBJ 32.5	TOR 22, CBJ 37
Win chance	CBJ 63%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.8	8	1.19	0	26%	0
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	3	0.99	2	39%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	3.1	6	0.94	0	33%	0
TOR D. Raddysh	2.9	1	0.69	0	17%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	2	0.96	2	33%	1
TOR K. Marchenko	2.4	2	0.71	1	26%	1
CBJ K. Johnson	2.2	0	0.68	0	23%	0
CBJ V. Nichushkin	2.1	0	0.70	1	27%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	2.1	2	0.81	1	25%	1
TOR J. Roslovic	2.0	2	0.46	3	19%	1
CBJ M. Knies	2.0	3	0.87	0	29%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.9	2	0.52	1	21%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.9	1	0.67	0	22%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.8	2	0.48	1	15%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.7	2	0.45	0	19%	0
TOR V. Lettieri	1.6	0	0.27	0	13%	0
TOR G. McKenna	1.6	2	0.40	0	15%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	2	0.44	3	17%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.6	1	0.56	0	14%	0
TOR N. Paul	1.5	2	0.38	0	19%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	0	0.39	3	9%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.5	3	0.44	0	14%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.3	1	0.35	0	13%	0
TOR C. Sissons	1.2	1	0.28	1	12%	0
TOR T. Blueger	1.1	0	0.26	0	9%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.0	1	0.22	0	5%	0
CBJ R. Lomberg	1.0	2	0.16	0	7%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.27	0	6%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.0	2	0.17	0	5%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.0	1	0.25	1	6%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	1.0	2	0.15	1	3%	1
CBJ L. Belluz	0.8	1	0.22	0	7%	0
TOR B. Duhaime	0.8	0	0.14	0	8%	0
TOR Z. MacEwen	0.7	0	0.08	0	4%	0
CBJ E. Andrae	0.5	0	0.14	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.