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Game Recap
TOR2
CGY5
CGY beat TOR 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.91 expected goals to 2.29. M. Gridin led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Suniev had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. D. Cooley stopped 26 of 28.
Team Stats
TORCGY
28Shots on goal34
2.29Expected goals3.91
41Shot attempts66
175v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play1/5
23Hits24
16Blocked shots4
17Penalty minutes11
12Giveaways13
3Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 2.29 xGCGY 3.91 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Nylander | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:14 | 2:43 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 19:00 | 2:57 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:43 | 1:08 |
| E. Cowan | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 15:30 | 1:03 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:35 | 1:03 |
| G. McKenna | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 2:46 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:00 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:54 | 1:17 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| Z. MacEwen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 5 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:05 | 1:59 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:27 | 1:08 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:49 | 2:52 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:14 | 1:04 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:00 |
| D. Mermis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 32 | 29 | 3 | .906 | 58:55 | Loss |
| A. Stolarz | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Gridin | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:11 | 5:59 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 24:08 | 6:20 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:44 | 5:53 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 12:20 | 0:15 |
| M. Backlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:32 | 0:18 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:47 | 2:12 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:11 | 6:04 |
| A. Suniev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:25 | 2:25 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:48 | 2:37 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 2:10 |
| J. Castagna | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:04 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:22 | 0:08 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:51 | 2:33 |
| Z. Parekh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:11 | 6:10 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 21:46 | 0:18 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16:14 | 0:09 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TOR
Line 1J. Roslovic16:00A. Matthews15:08E. Cowan10:39
Line 2T. Blueger10:06B. Duhaime8:37Z. MacEwen9:59
Line 3C. Sissons8:48V. Lettieri10:02G. McKenna10:50
Line 4N. Paul13:22W. Nylander12:42K. Marchenko5:06
Pair 1M. Rielly16:43T. Stecher15:00
Pair 2D. Raddysh18:36J. McCabe12:26
Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson14:11D. Mermis10:55
CGY
Line 1M. Backlund14:10J. Farabee14:12M. Coronato11:17
Line 2Y. Sharangovich11:25A. Suniev11:38M. Frost9:34
Line 3R. Strome10:23M. Gridin9:25M. Pospisil11:06
Line 4B. Othmann9:14J. Castagna9:25A. Klapka9:38
Pair 2J. Middleton12:15Z. Whitecloud13:59
Pair 3Y. Kuznetsov11:25Z. Parekh12:52
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
5 of 15 overs hit (33%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.5 | +105 | -115 | 1 | Under |
| TOR D. Raddysh | 2.5 | -105 | -114 | 3 | Over |
| CGY J. Farabee | 2.5 | +122 | -150 | 2 | Under |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.5 | -150 | +115 | 1 | Under |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.5 | -122 | +105 | 2 | Under |
| CGY M. Gridin | 2.5 | +140 | -160 | 5 | Over |
| TOR W. Nylander | 2.5 | -110 | -105 | 4 | Over |
| TOR E. Cowan | 1.5 | -122 | +115 | 1 | Under |
| TOR J. Roslovic | 1.5 | -190 | +148 | 1 | Under |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.5 | -140 | +110 | 2 | Over |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.5 | +130 | -130 | 1 | Under |
| TOR N. Paul | 1.5 | +115 | -130 | 1 | Under |
| CGY S. Nemec | 1.5 | -118 | -105 | 1 | Under |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.5 | -145 | +130 | 1 | Under |
| CGY Z. Parekh | 1.5 | -105 | -111 | 3 | Over |
6 of 32 overs hit (19%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY A. Klapka | 0.5 | +475 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| TOR A. Matthews | 0.5 | +120 | -160 | 0 | Under |
| CGY A. Suniev | 0.5 | +400 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| TOR B. Duhaime | 0.5 | +850 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| TOR C. Sissons | 0.5 | +625 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| TOR D. Mermis | 0.5 | +1800 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| TOR D. Raddysh | 0.5 | +500 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| TOR E. Cowan | 0.5 | +340 | -390 | 1 | Over |
| CGY J. Farabee | 0.5 | +250 | -330 | 1 | Over |
| TOR J. McCabe | 0.5 | +1700 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| CGY J. Middleton | 0.5 | +1800 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| TOR J. Roslovic | 0.5 | +275 | -390 | 0 | Under |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.5 | +1700 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| CGY M. Backlund | 0.5 | +350 | -370 | 1 | Over |
| CGY M. Coronato | 0.5 | +220 | -285 | 0 | Under |
| CGY M. Frost | 0.5 | +260 | -340 | 0 | Under |
| CGY M. Gridin | 0.5 | +300 | -420 | 2 | Over |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 0.5 | +550 | -1200 | 1 | Over |
| TOR M. Rielly | 0.5 | +800 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| TOR N. Paul | 0.5 | +425 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 0.5 | +1100 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| CGY R. Strome | 0.5 | +450 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| CGY S. Nemec | 0.5 | +800 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| TOR T. Blueger | 0.5 | +700 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| TOR T. Stecher | 0.5 | +1400 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| TOR V. Lettieri | 0.5 | +600 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| TOR W. Nylander | 0.5 | +170 | -225 | 1 | Over |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 0.5 | +1900 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 0.5 | +320 | -440 | 0 | Under |
| TOR Z. MacEwen | 0.5 | +1000 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CGY Z. Parekh | 0.5 | +625 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| CGY Z. Whitecloud | 0.5 | +1900 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
8 of 20 overs hit (40%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 0.5 | +110 | -125 | 1 | Over |
| CGY A. Suniev | 0.5 | +300 | -380 | 0 | Under |
| TOR C. Sissons | 0.5 | +350 | -525 | 0 | Under |
| TOR D. Raddysh | 0.5 | +110 | -135 | 0 | Under |
| TOR E. Cowan | 0.5 | +210 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| CGY J. Farabee | 0.5 | +145 | -185 | 1 | Over |
| TOR J. McCabe | 0.5 | +320 | -425 | 0 | Under |
| TOR J. Roslovic | 0.5 | +205 | -225 | 1 | Over |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.5 | +255 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| CGY M. Backlund | 0.5 | +225 | -375 | 0 | Under |
| CGY M. Coronato | 0.5 | +162 | -170 | 2 | Over |
| CGY M. Frost | 0.5 | +175 | -185 | 0 | Under |
| CGY M. Gridin | 0.5 | +210 | -220 | 1 | Over |
| TOR M. Rielly | 0.5 | +210 | -235 | 1 | Over |
| TOR N. Paul | 0.5 | +270 | -380 | 0 | Under |
| CGY R. Strome | 0.5 | +280 | -325 | 0 | Under |
| CGY S. Nemec | 0.5 | +240 | -275 | 2 | Over |
| TOR W. Nylander | 0.5 | +100 | -110 | 0 | Under |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 0.5 | +255 | -290 | 0 | Under |
| CGY Z. Parekh | 0.5 | +210 | -240 | 1 | Over |
9 of 20 overs hit (45%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 1.5 | +190 | -205 | 1 | Under |
| TOR W. Nylander | 1.5 | +190 | -230 | 1 | Under |
| CGY A. Suniev | 0.5 | +170 | -180 | 0 | Under |
| TOR C. Sissons | 0.5 | +220 | -295 | 0 | Under |
| TOR D. Raddysh | 0.5 | -120 | +110 | 0 | Under |
| TOR E. Cowan | 0.5 | +110 | -130 | 1 | Over |
| CGY J. Farabee | 0.5 | -130 | +105 | 2 | Over |
| TOR J. McCabe | 0.5 | +270 | -320 | 0 | Under |
| TOR J. Roslovic | 0.5 | +105 | -125 | 1 | Over |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.5 | +220 | -245 | 0 | Under |
| CGY M. Backlund | 0.5 | -105 | -125 | 1 | Over |
| CGY M. Coronato | 0.5 | -140 | +115 | 2 | Over |
| CGY M. Frost | 0.5 | -110 | +100 | 0 | Under |
| CGY M. Gridin | 0.5 | +100 | -115 | 3 | Over |
| TOR M. Rielly | 0.5 | +160 | -175 | 1 | Over |
| TOR N. Paul | 0.5 | +150 | -160 | 0 | Under |
| CGY R. Strome | 0.5 | +158 | -160 | 0 | Under |
| CGY S. Nemec | 0.5 | +172 | -185 | 2 | Over |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 0.5 | +125 | -140 | 0 | Under |
| CGY Z. Parekh | 0.5 | +145 | -165 | 1 | Over |
2 of 16 overs hit (13%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY A. Klapka | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| TOR A. Matthews | 0.5 | +195 | -260 | 0 | Under |
| CGY A. Suniev | 0.5 | +450 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| TOR D. Raddysh | 0.5 | +220 | -375 | 0 | Under |
| TOR E. Cowan | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CGY J. Farabee | 0.5 | +275 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| TOR J. Roslovic | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CGY M. Coronato | 0.5 | +235 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| CGY M. Frost | 0.5 | +250 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| CGY M. Gridin | 0.5 | +270 | -450 | 1 | Over |
| TOR M. Rielly | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CGY R. Strome | 0.5 | +400 | -1100 | 0 | Under |
| CGY S. Nemec | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| TOR W. Nylander | 0.5 | +200 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 0.5 | +390 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| CGY Z. Parekh | 0.5 | +350 | -500 | 1 | Over |
2 of 2 overs hit (100%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR S. Bobrovsky | 26.5 | -102 | -115 | 29 | Over |
| CGY D. Cooley | 25.5 | -114 | -105 | 26 | Over |
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.3, CGY 3.2 | TOR 2, CGY 5 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 27.8, CGY 31.7 | TOR 28, CGY 34 |
| Win chance | TOR 50% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.5 | 1 | 1.02 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| TOR D. Raddysh | 2.7 | 3 | 0.67 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.7 | 2 | 0.69 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 2.6 | 4 | 1.05 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| TOR K. Marchenko | 2.6 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.4 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 2.3 | 2 | 0.67 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| TOR J. Roslovic | 2.2 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Gridin | 2.1 | 5 | 0.62 | 3 | 19% | 2 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.8 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY S. Nemec | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR E. Cowan | 1.7 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CGY Z. Parekh | 1.6 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR N. Paul | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR G. McKenna | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR V. Lettieri | 1.6 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.6 | 2 | 0.34 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| CGY A. Suniev | 1.5 | 6 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY R. Strome | 1.5 | 5 | 0.49 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR C. Sissons | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR T. Blueger | 1.2 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY J. Castagna | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR T. Stecher | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY B. Othmann | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY J. Middleton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY Z. Whitecloud | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR B. Duhaime | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR Z. MacEwen | 0.9 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR D. Mermis | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.