Game Recap: TOR 1, DAL 5, December 21, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR1

FinalSun, Dec 21, 2025Every game that night

DAL5

DAL beat TOR 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.69 expected goals to 2.66. J. Benn led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Laughton had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Oettinger stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	0	1	1
DAL	1	0	4	5

1st 18:30DALJ. Robertson0.17 xG
3rd 5:03DALS. Steel0.03 xG
3rd 8:39TORS. Laughton0.12 xG
3rd 12:10DALJ. Benn0.09 xG
3rd 17:55DALM. BourqueEN0.94 xG
3rd 19:43DALJ. Hryckowian0.65 xG

Team Stats

TORDAL

28Shots on goal22

2.66Expected goals3.69

62Shot attempts42

195v5 shots on goal18

0/4Power play0/3

24Hits11

9Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes8

24Giveaways10

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.66 xGDAL 3.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR28 on goal, 1 scored

DAL22 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Laughton	C	1	0	1	5	1	1	-1	0	15:19	0:06
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	20:26	4:16
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:58	2:37
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	16:57	4:50
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	16:42	3:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	16:08	3:23
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:51	4:24
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	2	14:18	3:11
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:12	3:01
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:54	1:20
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:19	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	-2	0	10:21	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	21:38	5:07
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	20:50	2:18
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	19:13	0:20
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:59	0:12
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	17:07	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	13:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	21	17	4	.810	59:02	Loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Benn	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+1	0	9:49	0:41
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	19:43	4:56
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	16:55	5:09
M. Bourque	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	15:48	0:45
R. Faksa	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	15:24	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	14:25	0:00
S. Steel	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	14:07	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	11:27	0:00
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	18:14	4:15
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	15:20	4:52
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:29	0:00
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	11:59	1:22
E. Lindell	D	0	2	2	0	0	0	+1	0	25:45	0:28
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	2	26:06	4:48
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	20:53	0:49
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	1	1	1	3	3	+1	2	15:37	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:00	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	+3	0	12:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	28	27	1	.964	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews12:03M. Knies11:28M. Domi11:27

Line 2W. Nylander12:44M. Maccelli11:47J. Tavares10:09

Line 3N. Robertson11:11B. McMann11:52N. Roy11:39

Line 4D. Joshua10:21S. Lorentz9:43S. Laughton12:03

Pair 1T. Stecher15:49J. McCabe15:33

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson17:10S. Benoit14:27

Pair 3M. Rielly13:53P. Myers13:46

DAL

Line 1R. Hintz13:55J. Robertson14:43M. Bourque14:18

Line 2C. Blackwell11:05R. Faksa11:06O. Bäck10:22

Line 3M. Rantanen11:23W. Johnston10:01M. Duchene9:58

Line 4J. Benn8:50J. Hryckowian9:41S. Steel10:20

Pair 1E. Lindell17:34M. Heiskanen16:31

Pair 2N. Lundkvist14:00T. Harley17:32

Pair 3A. Petrovic12:15I. Lyubushkin13:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.6, DAL 3.2	TOR 1, DAL 5
Total goals	5.8	6
Shots on goal	TOR 25.4, DAL 28.2	TOR 28, DAL 22
Win chance	DAL 61%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	4	0.89	0	37%	0
DAL J. Robertson	3.1	2	0.98	1	34%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.6	2	0.74	0	28%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	0	1.05	1	32%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.4	3	0.87	0	31%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	2	0.81	0	31%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.2	1	0.78	1	14%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.1	0	0.68	0	23%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	2	0.79	0	29%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	5	0.49	1	9%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.7	1	0.33	0	16%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.6	4	0.36	1	14%	1
DAL J. Benn	1.6	4	0.55	2	19%	1
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	0	0.36	0	16%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.6	0	0.55	1	14%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.5	1	0.62	0	23%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	1	0.36	0	8%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	2	0.42	0	12%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.3	1	0.40	0	15%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	0	0.27	0	6%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	0	0.41	2	10%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.3	1	0.41	0	13%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.3	2	0.34	1	13%	1
DAL A. Petrovic	1.2	1	0.24	0	6%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.2	2	0.17	0	5%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	5	0.28	1	11%	1
DAL S. Steel	1.2	1	0.33	1	11%	1
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	0	0.24	0	10%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.1	1	0.10	0	3%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	0	0.22	0	9%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.31	0	6%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	0	0.27	0	13%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.8	1	0.30	1	9%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.8	0	0.26	1	10%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.7	1	0.22	1	3%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.