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Game Recap
TOR7
FinalSat, Oct 24, 2026Every game that night
EDM2

TOR beat EDM 7-2, with the chances close: 3.13 expected goals to 3.04. L. Draisaitl led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Draisaitl had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. A. Stolarz stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
TOR1247
EDM0112
  1. 1st 14:16TORJ. Roslovic0.06 xG
  2. 2nd 5:29TORA. Matthews0.17 xG
  3. 2nd 6:23TORT. Stecher0.16 xG
  4. 2nd 19:04EDML. Draisaitl0.04 xG
  5. 3rd 5:59TORW. NylanderPP0.14 xG
  6. 3rd 13:39TORZ. MacEwen0.43 xG
  7. 3rd 16:35EDML. DraisaitlPP0.15 xG
  8. 3rd 17:56TORW. NylanderEN0.50 xG
  9. 3rd 19:29TORV. Lettieri0.07 xG

Team Stats

TOREDM
31Shots on goal32
3.13Expected goals3.04
59Shot attempts68
285v5 shots on goal23
1/1Power play1/3
23Hits42
11Blocked shots14
15Penalty minutes11
12Giveaways16
6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.13 xGEDM 3.04 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdTOR goal, 14:16TOR goal, 5:29TOR goal, 6:23EDM goal, 19:04TOR goal, 5:59TOR goal, 13:39EDM goal, 16:35TOR goal, 17:56TOR goal, 19:29

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR32 on goal, 7 scored
EDM32 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
W. NylanderRW202310+2015:590:14
K. MarchenkoRW022101+1015:470:14
J. RoslovicC112100+1215:370:00
A. MatthewsC101210+2017:130:14
E. CowanRW011110+2215:200:00
B. DuhaimeLW011350+1013:290:00
G. McKennaLW0111010011:290:14
V. LettieriC101510+1510:570:00
Z. MacEwenRW101230+109:390:00
N. PaulLW000132+1215:590:00
C. SissonsC000220+1215:300:00
T. BluegerC000142+2014:360:00
T. StecherD101301+2224:210:00
J. McCabeD011301+3021:400:00
D. RaddyshD011002+2021:390:14
M. RiellyD011020+2018:510:00
O. Ekman-LarssonD0002010019:090:00
D. MermisD000000+2014:220:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Stolarz32302.93860:00Win
S. Bobrovsky000–0:00

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC022311-2022:273:50
L. DraisaitlC202700-2020:593:52
R. Nugent-HopkinsC000120-3018:563:44
Z. HymanLW000100-2018:283:28
V. PodkolzinRW000131-2016:390:56
K. KapanenRW000140-2015:230:33
M. JosephRW000022-1013:520:00
O. MichaelsRW000050-1213:240:00
A. FormentonLW000070-1212:490:00
C. DachC0000410210:100:31
F. HallanderC000240-108:300:19
M. JonesLW000040008:080:00
E. BouchardD022313-1026:113:47
R. SheaD000410-2025:330:42
C. MurphyD000322-2517:530:11
S. MukhamadullinD000013-1017:280:00
T. EmbersonD000211-2014:390:02
J. WalmanD000400-2014:320:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
T. Jarry30256.83359:45Loss
M. Tomkins000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1K. Marchenko15:17N. Paul14:23W. Nylander13:53
Line 2J. Roslovic14:17A. Matthews14:01E. Cowan14:36
Line 3T. Blueger11:49B. Duhaime11:15Z. MacEwen9:39
Line 4C. Sissons11:47G. McKenna11:15V. Lettieri10:57
Pair 1D. Raddysh18:33J. McCabe17:22
Pair 2T. Stecher19:16M. Rielly18:12
Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson15:21D. Mermis13:47

EDM

Line 1C. McDavid14:58L. Draisaitl14:01V. Podkolzin15:43
Line 2R. Nugent-Hopkins14:07K. Kapanen14:50Z. Hyman13:41
Line 3M. Joseph13:52A. Formenton12:49O. Michaels13:10
Line 4M. Jones8:08C. Dach9:39F. Hallander8:11
Pair 1S. Mukhamadullin16:37T. Emberson14:37
Pair 2R. Shea22:12E. Bouchard19:02
Pair 3C. Murphy17:15J. Walman12:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

4 of 14 overs hit (29%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
TOR A. Matthews3.5+112-1302Under
EDM C. McDavid3.5+105-1103Under
EDM L. Draisaitl3.5+115-1407Over
TOR D. Raddysh2.5+114-1250Under
EDM E. Bouchard2.5-125+1153Over
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins2.5+136-1801Under
EDM V. Podkolzin2.5+154-1601Under
TOR W. Nylander2.5+110-1203Over
EDM Z. Hyman2.5-108+1051Under
TOR E. Cowan1.5-115-1051Under
TOR J. Roslovic1.5-140+1201Under
EDM J. Walman1.5-105-1104Over
EDM K. Kapanen1.5-135+1201Under
TOR M. Rielly1.5+120-1350Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamJack Roslovic TOR Faces EDM, his team until Apr 20261 G, 1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreTOR 3.1, EDM 3.7TOR 7, EDM 2
Total goals6.79
Shots on goalTOR 25.0, EDM 32.2TOR 31, EDM 32
Win chanceEDM 59%TOR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.731.81241%0
TOR A. Matthews3.321.05140%1
EDM L. Draisaitl3.271.59244%2
EDM E. Bouchard3.031.23224%0
EDM Z. Hyman2.910.91038%0
TOR D. Raddysh2.500.68114%0
TOR K. Marchenko2.510.80229%0
TOR W. Nylander2.531.08236%2
EDM V. Podkolzin2.310.70025%0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins2.110.88026%0
EDM K. Kapanen2.110.58022%0
TOR J. Roslovic2.010.55221%1
EDM A. Formenton1.800.39016%0
TOR E. Cowan1.610.53119%0
EDM J. Walman1.640.34010%0
TOR N. Paul1.610.43021%0
TOR G. McKenna1.510.42114%0
TOR V. Lettieri1.450.26112%1
TOR M. Rielly1.400.4619%0
EDM F. Hallander1.220.2809%0
EDM C. Murphy1.230.3009%0
TOR C. Sissons1.220.32013%0
EDM C. Dach1.100.25010%0
EDM R. Shea1.140.49011%0
TOR T. Blueger1.110.33012%0
EDM M. Jones1.100.2109%0
EDM S. Mukhamadullin1.100.2708%0
EDM O. Michaels1.100.38014%0
EDM M. Joseph1.100.33011%0
TOR T. Stecher1.030.2015%1
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.020.3005%0
TOR B. Duhaime0.930.20110%0
TOR J. McCabe0.830.2515%0
TOR Z. MacEwen0.720.1114%1
TOR D. Mermis0.700.1304%0
EDM T. Emberson0.620.1403%0

Shots on goal: 10 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.