Game Recap: TOR 1, FLA 5, November 27, 2024

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Game Recap

TOR1

FinalWed, Nov 27, 2024Every game that night

FLA5

FLA beat TOR 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.81 expected goals to 1.92. C. Verhaeghe led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Bobrovsky stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	1	0	1
FLA	2	1	2	5

1st 4:46FLAA. BarkovPP0.11 xG
1st 5:36FLAM. Samoskevich0.15 xG
2nd 17:04FLAS. ReinhartSH0.11 xG
2nd 18:31TORM. MarnerPP0.14 xG
3rd 14:37FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.06 xG
3rd 18:32FLAS. BennettEN0.88 xG

Team Stats

TORFLA

24Shots on goal24

1.92Expected goals2.81

46Shot attempts59

175v5 shots on goal15

1/3Power play2/5

19Hits28

20Blocked shots11

10Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways14

7Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 1.92 xGFLA 2.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR24 on goal, 1 scored

FLA23 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	1	1	3	1	0	-2	0	21:30	3:07
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	3	0	0	-3	4	20:38	3:51
J. Tavares	C	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	19:07	3:07
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:08	0:59
F. Minten	C	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	15:08	2:51
C. Dewar	C	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	14:23	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	13:27	2:11
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:05	0:00
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	11:03	1:06
A. Nylander	LW	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:56	2:33
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:21	1:45
A. Steeves	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:08	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	3	2	1	-2	0	23:05	2:29
M. Rielly	D	0	0	4	1	2	-3	0	20:27	3:04
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	19:18	0:08
C. Timmins	D	0	0	3	3	0	0	4	18:12	1:14
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	18:07	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	17:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	23	19	4	.826	58:15	Loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	2	3	1	4	2	+1	0	18:26	4:09
A. Barkov	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	20:01	5:42
S. Bennett	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	17:54	3:59
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	4	21:31	7:22
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	20:31	5:45
E. Rodrigues	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	2	16:13	2:53
E. Luostarinen	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	14:10	0:05
M. Samoskevich	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:09	1:59
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	13:59	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:33	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	8:08	0:00
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:35	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	4	4	2	+2	0	26:40	6:21
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	22:43	1:06
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	18:48	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	17:29	2:35
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:44	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:45	1:19

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSergei Bobrovsky TOR First game back in South Florida, his team until Apr 202623 saves on 24, the win
Old teamAnthony Stolarz TOR Faces FLA, his team until Jun 202419 saves on 23

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.9, FLA 3.1	TOR 1, FLA 5
Total goals	6.0	6
Shots on goal	TOR 27.9, FLA 30.6	TOR 24, FLA 24
Win chance	FLA 52%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR W. Nylander	3.3	3	1.02	0	37%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.1	2	0.81	0	30%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.0	3	1.03	1	31%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	3.0	1	0.82	3	32%	1
FLA S. Reinhart	2.7	3	1.02	1	40%	1
FLA S. Bennett	2.6	2	0.69	2	26%	1
FLA A. Barkov	2.4	2	1.06	2	29%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.4	0	0.43	0	23%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.1	3	1.08	1	29%	1
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.0	0	0.53	1	20%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	4	0.62	0	9%	0
TOR A. Nylander	1.9	2	0.40	0	20%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.8	1	0.44	0	10%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.6	4	0.41	1	10%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	2	0.30	0	15%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	3	0.35	0	6%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.2	1	0.34	1	13%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.1	1	0.21	0	3%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.1	2	0.29	1	12%	1
TOR F. Minten	1.1	1	0.32	0	13%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	1.0	0	0.25	0	5%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	2	0.21	0	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.32	0	6%	0
TOR A. Steeves	1.0	0	0.17	0	8%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.0	0	0.24	0	5%	0
TOR C. Dewar	1.0	1	0.21	0	9%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	0	0.28	0	12%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.18	0	10%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.9	1	0.26	0	12%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	3	0.34	0	5%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.9	1	0.19	0	8%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.8	0	0.20	0	7%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.10	0	2%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.20	0	3%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.6	0	0.11	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.