Game Recap: TOR 1, FLA 3, April 8, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR1

FinalTue, Apr 8, 2025Every game that night

FLA3

FLA beat TOR 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.64 expected goals to 0.90. FLA outshot TOR 37 to 18. G. Forsling had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Bobrovsky stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	1	0	1
FLA	1	0	2	3

1st 9:26FLAG. Forsling0.01 xG
2nd 1:06TORJ. Tavares0.10 xG
3rd 1:04FLAE. Luostarinen0.14 xG
3rd 19:13FLAC. VerhaegheEN0.83 xG

Team Stats

TORFLA

18Shots on goal37

0.90Expected goals3.64

34Shot attempts71

165v5 shots on goal32

0/2Power play0/1

29Hits43

18Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways7

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 0.90 xGFLA 3.64 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR16 on goal, 1 scored

FLA35 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	1	1	2	1	1	-2	0	15:41	2:16
A. Matthews	C	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	21:17	2:20
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	21:09	2:14
M. Knies	LW	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	21:02	2:11
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	15:41	2:17
M. Domi	C	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:29	1:43
B. McMann	C	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	14:09	1:49
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:44	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	12:59	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:13	1:44
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:14	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	10:46	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	2	1	3	0	2	21:57	1:32
M. Rielly	D	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	21:31	1:46
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:15	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:22	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:39	0:08
P. Myers	D	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	36	34	2	.944	58:23	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Barkov	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:25	1:50
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	18:33	0:08
B. Marchand	LW	0	1	1	4	3	1	+2	0	16:15	1:47
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	6	1	0	+1	0	14:53	0:10
E. Luostarinen	C	1	0	1	1	6	1	+1	0	13:40	0:00
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	20:32	1:52
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:43	1:47
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:20	0:13
J. Puljujarvi	RW	0	0	0	2	8	1	0	0	11:51	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:50	0:00
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	10:47	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	10:28	0:00
G. Forsling	D	1	0	1	8	1	0	+1	0	21:11	0:13
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	23:05	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	2	23:00	1:57
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	18:46	0:03
J. Megna	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:54	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	18	17	1	.944	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSergei Bobrovsky TOR First game back in South Florida, his team until Apr 202617 saves on 18, the win
Old teamAnthony Stolarz TOR Faces FLA, his team until Jun 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.8, FLA 3.3	TOR 1, FLA 3
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	TOR 24.9, FLA 33.7	TOR 18, FLA 37
Win chance	FLA 59%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.4	1	0.94	0	39%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.8	3	0.96	0	38%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.7	2	0.67	1	27%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.6	0	0.83	0	33%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.4	4	0.73	1	26%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.4	2	0.74	1	29%	1
FLA G. Forsling	2.4	8	0.44	1	12%	1
FLA A. Barkov	2.3	2	1.01	1	28%	0
FLA S. Jones	2.3	2	0.54	0	11%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.2	1	0.51	0	20%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.1	6	0.59	1	19%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.1	1	0.42	0	22%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.9	0	0.41	0	17%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	3	0.56	0	23%	0
TOR M. Marner	1.8	0	0.92	0	25%	0
FLA J. Puljujarvi	1.7	2	0.28	0	11%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.4	0	0.25	0	5%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.4	0	0.30	0	16%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.4	2	0.48	0	7%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	2	0.35	0	6%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.3	1	0.15	0	4%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	1	0.30	0	12%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.2	1	0.19	0	5%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.2	1	0.40	0	12%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.2	1	0.33	1	13%	1
FLA N. Schmidt	1.1	2	0.29	0	6%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.1	2	0.30	0	14%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.1	1	0.22	0	9%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	1.0	1	0.14	0	8%	0
TOR B. Carlo	0.9	0	0.16	0	4%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.9	1	0.19	0	6%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	1	0.18	0	9%	0
FLA J. Megna	0.8	0	0.13	0	2%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	0.7	1	0.20	0	9%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.21	0	3%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.