Game Recap: TOR 7, MTL 3, January 18, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR7

FinalSat, Jan 18, 2025Every game that night

MTL3

TOR beat MTL 7-3, with the chances close: 3.63 expected goals to 3.81. O. Ekman-Larsson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Caufield had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. J. Woll stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	2	5	7
MTL	3	0	0	3

1st 5:08MTLK. Dach0.24 xG
1st 18:21MTLP. LainePP0.05 xG
1st 18:30MTLJ. Anderson0.15 xG
2nd 9:32TORB. McMann0.09 xG
2nd 18:46TORN. RobertsonPP0.08 xG
3rd 0:24TORW. Nylander0.12 xG
3rd 4:31TORO. Ekman-LarssonPP0.05 xG
3rd 7:58TORA. MatthewsSH0.06 xG
3rd 14:45TORS. Lorentz0.28 xG
3rd 18:26TORD. KampfEN0.60 xG

Team Stats

TORMTL

34Shots on goal35

3.63Expected goals3.81

63Shot attempts69

245v5 shots on goal30

2/4Power play1/5

20Hits15

19Blocked shots17

10Penalty minutes8

10Giveaways19

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.63 xGMTL 3.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR31 on goal, 7 scored

MTL34 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	22:09	3:51
B. McMann	C	1	1	2	5	1	2	+1	2	17:22	3:09
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	7	0	0	+1	0	19:34	3:43
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	0	5	2	0	2	18:42	3:11
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	4	18:07	4:19
D. Kampf	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	+2	0	15:36	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	0	14:09	0:32
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	12:25	1:39
N. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	11:43	2:13
S. Lorentz	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	2	11:30	0:00
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	10:19	1:39
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:38	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	1	2	3	2	0	0	+3	0	22:35	1:03
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+2	0	16:27	1:31
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	+2	0	26:06	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	24:16	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	14:31	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	8:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	35	32	3	.914	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Laine	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	-2	0	15:35	3:27
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:42	3:01
K. Dach	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-2	0	17:42	5:33
J. Anderson	RW	1	0	1	1	4	0	-1	0	14:20	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13:41	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	10	0	0	-1	0	18:51	3:01
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:08	4:47
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	2	17:06	4:36
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	16:42	3:04
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:18	4:28
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:29	0:00
M. Pezzetta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2:58	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	1	1	4	1	2	+2	0	19:29	0:13
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+1	0	19:05	0:18
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	-5	2	18:40	3:16
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	25:28	4:26
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	2	15:52	0:05
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	33	27	6	.818	57:09	Loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayKaiden Guhle MTL Turns 23 that day1 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.2, MTL 3.0	TOR 7, MTL 3
Total goals	6.2	10
Shots on goal	TOR 28.7, MTL 27.8	TOR 34, MTL 35
Win chance	TOR 53%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.9	2	1.13	1	46%	1
TOR W. Nylander	3.3	7	1.05	1	39%	1
MTL C. Caufield	3.1	10	0.82	0	33%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.6	5	0.53	2	27%	1
MTL P. Laine	2.4	2	0.70	2	28%	1
TOR M. Marner	2.3	1	1.23	2	31%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.1	1	0.64	0	11%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	1	0.88	1	27%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.9	0	0.63	1	27%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	0	0.63	1	9%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	1.9	3	0.48	0	19%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.8	0	0.58	1	16%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.8	0	0.42	1	19%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	1	0.39	1	19%	1
MTL B. Gallagher	1.7	1	0.37	0	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.7	2	0.40	3	7%	1
MTL K. Dach	1.5	4	0.44	1	16%	1
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	1	0.34	1	17%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.5	1	0.55	0	17%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.4	0	0.22	0	4%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	2	0.41	0	18%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	4	0.32	1	7%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.2	2	0.36	0	14%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	0	0.74	1	6%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.1	2	0.33	1	5%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	1	0.44	0	14%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	2	0.34	0	6%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.0	1	0.16	0	4%	0
TOR C. Timmins	1.0	2	0.29	0	4%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	0.9	3	0.28	1	12%	0
TOR D. Kampf	0.8	2	0.21	1	9%	1
TOR S. Lorentz	0.8	3	0.18	1	9%	1
MTL D. Savard	0.7	2	0.26	0	4%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	1	0.27	0	3%	0
MTL M. Pezzetta	0.5	0	0.13	0	5%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.4	0	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.