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Game Recap
TOR4
NJD2
TOR beat NJD 4-2, with the chances close: 1.99 expected goals to 2.31. S. Lorentz led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Hildeby stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| NJD | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 8:18TORM. Pacioretty0.14 xG
- 1st 11:29TORB. McMann0.01 xG
- 1st 14:46TORS. Lorentz0.09 xG
- 1st 19:18NJDJ. BrattPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 14:52TORJ. Tavares0.20 xG
- 2nd 19:54NJDT. Meier0.09 xG
Team Stats
TORNJD
22Shots on goal23
1.99Expected goals2.31
43Shot attempts74
205v5 shots on goal14
0/2Power play1/5
12Hits32
27Blocked shots11
10Penalty minutes4
17Giveaways21
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 1.99 xGNJD 2.31 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Lorentz | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Tavares | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:04 | 2:19 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:51 | 1:34 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| B. McMann | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:36 | 1:35 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:20 | 2:25 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:04 | 2:29 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 1:39 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:35 | 2:18 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:16 | 1:06 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 23:25 | 0:35 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 20:34 | 1:40 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:13 | 2:20 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 4 | 15:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Hildeby | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 59:29 | Win |
| A. Stolarz | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Bratt | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:35 | 6:59 |
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:19 | 7:04 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:28 | 7:11 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:46 | 7:03 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 17:18 | 2:21 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:47 | 2:01 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:27 | 2:07 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 2:15 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:52 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | 25:30 | 6:48 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:14 |
| S. Casey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:50 | 2:32 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 58:06 | Loss |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.4, NJD 3.3 | TOR 4, NJD 2 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 30.5, NJD 29.8 | TOR 22, NJD 23 |
| Win chance | TOR 51% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 4.4 | 2 | 1.23 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.3 | 1 | 1.07 | 0 | 45% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.8 | 5 | 0.88 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.7 | 0 | 1.01 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.5 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 3.2 | 2 | 1.02 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 3.0 | 2 | 1.01 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.8 | 4 | 0.64 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.4 | 1 | 1.07 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 2.3 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 2.2 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| TOR M. Domi | 2.2 | 0 | 0.63 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 2.0 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.0 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.9 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.5 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 1.0 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.8 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.8 | 2 | 0.13 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.