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Game Recap
TOR2
NJD1
TOR beat NJD 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.79 expected goals to 3.90. NJD outshot TOR 39 to 17. T. Meier had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. A. Stolarz stopped 38 of 39.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| NJD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 7:16NJDO. Palat0.16 xG
- 3rd 10:42TORP. HolmbergSH0.07 xG
- OT 2:51TORA. Matthews0.24 xG
Team Stats
TORNJD
17Shots on goal39
2.79Expected goals3.90
48Shot attempts73
115v5 shots on goal27
0/3Power play0/4
22Hits18
20Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways11
4Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 2.79 xGNJD 3.90 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Matthews | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:41 | 3:51 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:00 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 8:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:47 | 3:40 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:23 | 5:13 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:06 | 3:14 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:35 | 3:25 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:43 | 2:31 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 2:31 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:30 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 2 | 20:38 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:24 | 1:57 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:45 | 2:51 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:01 | 0:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:17 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 39 | 38 | 1 | .974 | 62:51 | Win |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:10 | 5:04 |
| O. Palat | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:45 | 2:59 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:29 | 4:58 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:09 | 5:47 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:58 | 2:37 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:10 | 4:43 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:27 | 3:17 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:40 | 1:00 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:44 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:11 | 1:11 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:02 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 22:01 | 4:57 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:43 | 0:15 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:02 | 3:12 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 17 | 15 | 2 | .882 | 62:51 | OT loss |
| I. Poulter | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.2, NJD 3.2 | TOR 2, NJD 1 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 28.0, NJD 30.3 | TOR 17, NJD 39 |
| Win chance | NJD 51% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.9 | 5 | 1.12 | 1 | 46% | 1 |
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.8 | 2 | 1.17 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.3 | 0 | 1.01 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.2 | 3 | 0.84 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.9 | 6 | 0.70 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.7 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.7 | 3 | 1.01 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.7 | 1 | 0.91 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.2 | 1 | 1.18 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.0 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.8 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.7 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 1.7 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.5 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.5 | 4 | 0.47 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.4 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR F. Minten | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.0 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 0.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR C. Dewar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.9 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 0.9 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.7 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR R. Reaves | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.