Game Recap: TOR 3, NJD 4 (SO), March 4, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR3

Final/SOWed, Mar 4, 2026Every game that night

NJD4

NJD beat TOR 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 5.05 expected goals to 3.03. NJD outshot TOR 47 to 27. A. Gritsyuk led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Brown had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Markstrom stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
TOR	1	1	1	0	3
NJD	1	1	1	1	4

1st 5:26TORM. Maccelli0.19 xG
1st 7:55NJDT. Meier0.09 xG
2nd 3:20TORW. NylanderPP0.08 xG
2nd 6:06NJDA. Gritsyuk0.09 xG
3rd 13:50TORM. Knies0.28 xG
3rd 17:39NJDC. Brown0.22 xG

Team Stats

TORNJD

27Shots on goal47

3.03Expected goals5.05

50Shot attempts80

205v5 shots on goal31

1/3Power play0/3

16Hits10

13Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways16

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.03 xGNJD 5.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR26 on goal, 3 scored

NJD45 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	6	1	2	-1	0	24:57	4:19
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	22:51	3:41
E. Cowan	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	0	17:03	1:49
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	4	1	2	0	0	16:45	4:09
M. Maccelli	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	16:22	1:38
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	15:48	4:10
D. Joshua	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	2	11:19	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:55	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:25	2:18
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:18	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:33	1:49
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:21	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	20:45	0:03
S. Benoit	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	-2	0	17:14	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	26:28	2:15
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	22:35	3:44
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	2	17:23	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	14:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	47	44	3	.936	65:00	OT loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	0	2	2	5	1	0	+1	0	24:17	5:01
A. Gritsyuk	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	17:04	1:46
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	20:31	4:14
T. Meier	RW	1	0	1	7	0	2	+1	0	19:19	0:59
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	18:49	1:26
C. Brown	RW	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	17:16	3:54
J. Hughes	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	22:44	5:01
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	14:36	0:00
L. Hameenaho	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:39	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:33	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	7:16	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6:52	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	+2	0	22:11	1:56
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	27:15	4:04
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	20:34	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	18:53	1:39
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	2	16:21	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	15:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	27	24	3	.889	65:00	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews16:02W. Nylander16:48E. Cowan15:14

Line 2J. Tavares11:17M. Knies11:38M. Domi12:18

Line 3N. Roy13:42M. Maccelli12:54D. Joshua11:19

Line 4C. Jarnkrok8:00S. Lorentz6:36N. Robertson7:58

Pair 1J. McCabe18:39T. Stecher17:02

Pair 2M. Rielly16:12B. Carlo14:45

Pair 3P. Myers14:23S. Benoit15:18

NJD

Line 1T. Meier16:58N. Hischier14:01D. Mercer13:52

Line 2J. Hughes14:58A. Gritsyuk14:29C. Brown10:56

Line 3J. Bratt13:22C. Glass13:21L. Hameenaho10:39

Line 4N. Bjugstad7:25P. Cotter6:44M. Tsyplakov6:52

Pair 1D. Hamilton18:23J. Siegenthaler16:59

Pair 2B. Dillon14:39S. Nemec16:23

Pair 3J. Kovacevic14:32L. Hughes15:32

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.2, NJD 3.1	TOR 3, NJD 4
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	TOR 26.4, NJD 32.1	TOR 27, NJD 47
Win chance	TOR 51%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.7	6	1.04	1	43%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.5	7	0.64	1	29%	1
NJD J. Hughes	3.5	5	0.99	0	31%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.9	3	0.59	0	17%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.7	5	0.80	2	30%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	2	0.99	1	35%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	4	0.84	1	24%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.3	4	0.77	1	31%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.3	1	0.43	2	16%	1
NJD L. Hughes	1.9	4	0.54	1	10%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.8	6	0.55	1	18%	1
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	1	0.52	0	10%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	4	0.45	1	21%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	2	0.67	1	24%	1
NJD C. Glass	1.6	2	0.35	0	15%	0
NJD N. Bjugstad	1.5	0	0.25	0	13%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	1	0.38	0	18%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	0	0.50	0	15%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.5	0	0.38	0	12%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.5	3	0.48	1	16%	1
NJD L. Hameenaho	1.4	1	0.37	0	14%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.2	2	0.18	1	5%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.1	0	0.30	1	12%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	0	0.33	0	6%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.1	1	0.11	0	3%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.1	1	0.14	0	3%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.0	1	0.37	0	15%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	1	0.23	0	10%	0
NJD M. Tsyplakov	0.9	2	0.20	0	7%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	1	0.29	1	15%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.8	1	0.15	0	3%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.8	0	0.18	0	10%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.8	0	0.22	0	11%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	1	0.10	1	2%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	1	0.21	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.