Game Recap: TOR 2, NYR 6, March 5, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR2

FinalThu, Mar 5, 2026Every game that night

NYR6

NYR beat TOR 6-2, with the chances close: 3.49 expected goals to 3.04. TOR outshot NYR 32 to 24. A. Lafrenière led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). W. Cuylle had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. I. Shesterkin stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	1	1	0	2
NYR	1	1	4	6

1st 0:13TORM. Maccelli0.21 xG
1st 6:45NYRW. Cuylle0.06 xG
2nd 5:27TORE. Cowan0.06 xG
2nd 7:29NYRV. GavrikovPP0.36 xG
3rd 5:38NYRA. Lafrenière0.11 xG
3rd 10:27NYRJ. Chmelar0.13 xG
3rd 11:19NYRM. Zibanejad0.06 xG
3rd 17:09NYRW. CuylleEN0.67 xG

Team Stats

TORNYR

32Shots on goal24

3.04Expected goals3.49

54Shot attempts64

285v5 shots on goal21

0/1Power play1/2

27Hits22

24Blocked shots9

4Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways13

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.04 xGNYR 3.49 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR32 on goal, 2 scored

NYR24 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Maccelli	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	2	19:32	0:47
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	18:18	1:13
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	17:39	1:14
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	17:11	1:15
E. Cowan	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	16:48	0:47
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	20:46	1:13
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-3	0	14:42	0:41
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	8	2	-3	0	13:27	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	13:09	0:45
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:40	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:07	0:00
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	9:53	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	20:47	1:10
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:25	0:05
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	-2	0	20:23	0:50
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	3	4	+1	0	19:48	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	-1	0	18:26	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	5	2	-1	0	15:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	23	18	5	.783	57:00	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	1	2	3	2	0	1	+1	0	21:12	2:27
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	2	3	3	0	1	+1	0	20:55	2:25
W. Cuylle	LW	2	0	2	5	1	1	+3	0	17:57	2:26
T. Raddysh	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	13:40	0:56
J. Brodzinski	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	13:11	1:00
J. Chmelar	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	9:32	0:00
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:48	2:23
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:55	0:00
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	15:51	0:00
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:03	0:57
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	9:23	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	8:54	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	23:13	2:31
V. Gavrikov	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	22:25	0:58
B. Schneider	D	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	19:56	0:52
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	18:04	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	17:51	0:00
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	16:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	32	30	2	.938	59:56	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews16:58M. Maccelli16:28W. Nylander15:03

Line 2J. Tavares13:43M. Knies13:46E. Cowan14:59

Line 3D. Joshua12:40N. Robertson13:03M. Domi11:37

Line 4S. Lorentz8:53J. Quillan8:43C. Jarnkrok8:29

Pair 1J. McCabe16:58T. Stecher19:05

Pair 2M. Rielly17:12B. Carlo17:33

Pair 3P. Myers18:26S. Benoit14:09

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad15:34A. Lafrenière16:11G. Perreault15:25

Line 2T. Kartye15:33N. Laba14:29C. Sheary13:28

Line 3W. Cuylle12:22T. Raddysh11:31J. Brodzinski12:11

Line 4J. Parssinen9:23A. Edstrom8:54J. Chmelar9:32

Pair 1M. Robertson17:11V. Iorio16:14

Pair 2A. Fox18:09V. Gavrikov17:54

Pair 3W. Borgen16:31B. Schneider17:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.0, NYR 3.4	TOR 2, NYR 6
Total goals	6.4	8
Shots on goal	TOR 27.0, NYR 30.0	TOR 32, NYR 24
Win chance	NYR 56%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.9	4	1.08	0	41%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	3.1	2	0.99	3	31%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.6	2	1.03	1	34%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.4	2	0.78	1	29%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.3	5	0.56	2	22%	2
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	3	0.66	3	24%	1
NYR A. Fox	2.1	1	0.97	1	17%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	2	0.52	0	10%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.8	1	0.44	0	18%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	3	0.67	1	23%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.7	2	0.45	1	12%	1
TOR M. Maccelli	1.5	2	0.49	1	15%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.5	2	0.51	0	14%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	4	0.37	0	17%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.5	2	0.28	1	8%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.4	0	0.32	0	12%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.2	3	0.34	1	12%	1
NYR M. Robertson	1.2	1	0.27	0	9%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.2	0	0.19	0	5%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.2	1	0.29	1	12%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.2	1	0.33	0	6%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.2	0	0.25	0	7%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.1	0	0.11	0	3%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.1	0	0.31	0	12%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.1	0	0.26	0	12%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.1	2	0.14	0	3%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.0	2	0.27	1	11%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	1	0.22	0	8%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.9	0	0.20	0	11%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	1	0.29	0	14%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.8	1	0.23	0	11%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	1	0.10	0	2%	0
NYR V. Iorio	0.7	3	0.16	0	3%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.7	0	0.26	0	10%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	0.7	1	0.14	1	8%	1
TOR J. Quillan	0.5	1	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.