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Game Recap
TOR3
Final/OTThu, Apr 24, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night
OTT2

TOR beat OTT 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.07 expected goals to 2.45. A. Matthews led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Stolarz stopped 18 of 20.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
TOR01113
OTT01102
  1. 2nd 1:38OTTC. GirouxPP0.08 xG
  2. 2nd 8:31TORM. KniesPP0.32 xG
  3. 3rd 0:32TORA. Matthews0.16 xG
  4. 3rd 11:22OTTB. Tkachuk0.03 xG
  5. OT 1:19TORS. Benoit0.01 xG

Team Stats

TOROTT
20Shots on goal20
2.07Expected goals2.45
50Shot attempts58
185v5 shots on goal13
1/2Power play1/4
37Hits44
17Blocked shots17
12Penalty minutes8
7Giveaways16
4Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.07 xGOTT 2.45 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdOTOTT goal, 1:38TOR goal, 8:31TOR goal, 0:32OTT goal, 11:22TOR goal, 1:19

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR20 on goal, 3 scored
OTT20 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. MatthewsC112230+2019:552:07
M. MarnerRW022020+2019:522:07
W. NylanderRW0111000217:202:07
M. KniesLW101130+2216:242:07
J. TavaresC0003100217:062:07
M. DomiC000130-1013:290:00
P. HolmbergRW0001200013:220:00
B. McMannC000370-1012:440:00
M. PaciorettyLW000170-1012:240:00
S. LaughtonC0000200011:560:00
C. JarnkrokC0000010010:560:00
S. LorentzC0002200210:390:00
M. RiellyD0110040020:110:00
S. BenoitD101332+1219:300:00
J. McCabeD0001140021:480:00
C. TanevD0000120019:590:00
B. CarloD0001030219:150:00
O. Ekman-LarssonD000001+1018:070:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Stolarz20182.90061:19Win
J. Woll000–0:00

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. GirouxRW112100+1015:432:22
B. TkachukLW101440+1217:194:04
D. BathersonRW0112400217:124:18
T. StützleC0002300020:344:01
S. PintoC000122-2218:140:06
R. GreigC000240-2017:061:44
D. CozensC000360+1015:442:26
F. ZetterlundLW0000400014:301:48
M. AmadioRW000210-2014:060:03
N. CousinsC0000400011:190:11
D. PerronLW0000100211:072:02
A. GaudetteRW000120009:420:03
J. SandersonD011132-2025:444:05
T. KlevenD011121+1014:380:00
T. ChabotD0000150022:551:58
A. ZubD000002-2021:220:18
N. JensenD0000230020:260:03
N. MatinpaloD000012+1012:050:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Ullmark20173.85061:19Loss
A. Forsberg000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreTOR 3.2, OTT 3.1TOR 3, OTT 2
Total goals6.45
Shots on goalTOR 26.8, OTT 30.7TOR 20, OTT 20
Win chanceTOR 51%TOR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
OTT B. Tkachuk3.840.70129%1
TOR A. Matthews3.821.08242%1
TOR W. Nylander2.810.89134%0
OTT J. Sanderson2.710.62111%0
TOR J. Tavares2.730.83031%0
OTT D. Batherson2.520.75126%0
OTT T. Chabot2.400.58012%0
OTT D. Cozens2.430.57020%0
OTT T. Stützle2.120.84025%0
TOR M. Knies2.110.68126%1
OTT F. Zetterlund2.100.41017%0
TOR M. Marner2.101.13229%0
OTT S. Pinto2.010.54023%0
TOR B. McMann2.030.39020%0
TOR M. Pacioretty1.810.41016%0
OTT R. Greig1.720.45018%0
OTT D. Perron1.700.49020%0
OTT C. Giroux1.610.57220%1
TOR M. Rielly1.500.5218%0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.500.3607%0
TOR S. Laughton1.500.37014%0
OTT M. Amadio1.520.43020%0
TOR M. Domi1.410.48014%0
OTT N. Cousins1.200.24010%0
TOR C. Jarnkrok1.200.35015%0
OTT A. Zub1.200.2706%0
OTT A. Gaudette1.210.27015%0
TOR S. Lorentz1.120.24011%0
TOR J. McCabe1.110.3306%0
OTT N. Jensen1.100.2504%0
OTT T. Kleven1.110.1714%0
OTT N. Matinpalo1.100.1203%0
TOR P. Holmberg1.110.28011%0
TOR B. Carlo1.010.1704%0
TOR S. Benoit0.830.1413%1
TOR C. Tanev0.700.2103%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.