OTT beat TOR 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.18 expected goals to 3.09. TOR outshot OTT 34 to 21. J. Sanderson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). W. Nylander had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. L. Ullmark stopped 31 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| OTT | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 9:03OTTT. StützlePP0.06 xG
- 1st 14:11OTTS. PintoSH0.17 xG
- 1st 19:05TORJ. Tavares0.07 xG
- 2nd 10:12TORM. Knies0.25 xG
- 3rd 7:32OTTD. Perron0.13 xG
- 3rd 14:31TORO. Ekman-Larsson0.09 xG
- OT 17:42OTTJ. Sanderson0.01 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 3.09 xGOTT 2.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:43 | 5:10 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28:26 | 5:19 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26:23 | 5:26 |
| M. Knies | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:47 | 5:36 |
| J. Tavares | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:56 | 2:02 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:04 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:46 | 1:47 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 | 0:01 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:01 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:36 | 1:27 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:03 | 1:35 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 27:12 | 1:02 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:14 | 1:51 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 24:34 | 0:17 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 30:51 | 4:39 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:25 | 0:16 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:16 | 0:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 21 | 17 | 4 | .810 | 77:42 | Loss |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Pinto | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:07 | 0:00 |
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:04 | 2:23 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:24 | 2:23 |
| D. Perron | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:38 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:40 | 2:23 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:12 | 0:00 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:00 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18:06 | 2:23 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 30:05 | 2:23 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 27:24 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 29:58 | 0:00 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27:15 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:01 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 34 | 31 | 3 | .912 | 77:24 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.2, OTT 3.1 | TOR 3, OTT 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 26.4, OTT 30.1 | TOR 34, OTT 21 |
| Win chance | TOR 51% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.8 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.8 | 4 | 1.09 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 2.7 | 6 | 0.89 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.6 | 3 | 0.82 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.6 | 3 | 0.62 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.5 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.3 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.3 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.2 | 1 | 0.84 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 2.0 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| TOR M. Knies | 2.0 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.0 | 2 | 1.12 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.0 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 1.8 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.6 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.6 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.5 | 4 | 0.52 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.4 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.6 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.