Game Recap: TOR 2, OTT 5, March 21, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR2

FinalSat, Mar 21, 2026Every game that night

OTT5

OTT beat TOR 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.28 expected goals to 2.31. OTT outshot TOR 44 to 14. E. Cowan led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Giroux had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. L. Ullmark stopped 12 of 14.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	1	1	2
OTT	1	2	2	5

1st 14:58OTTT. StützlePP0.08 xG
2nd 9:09OTTC. Giroux0.04 xG
2nd 17:53OTTW. Foegele0.06 xG
2nd 18:14TORJ. Tavares0.23 xG
3rd 4:52TORE. Cowan0.40 xG
3rd 9:41OTTM. Amadio0.19 xG
3rd 13:11OTTR. Greig0.16 xG

Team Stats

TOROTT

14Shots on goal44

2.31Expected goals5.28

33Shot attempts71

95v5 shots on goal34

0/3Power play1/4

17Hits22

6Blocked shots13

10Penalty minutes8

17Giveaways14

2Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.31 xGOTT 5.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR14 on goal, 2 scored

OTT42 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Cowan	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	18:04	1:38
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	21:47	4:32
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	18:55	4:13
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	24:28	4:33
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	14:24	0:00
B. Groulx	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	13:39	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:25	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	10:47	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	10:37	2:56
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:30	0:00
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	10:16	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:54	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	18:18	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	17:12	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	4	23:20	4:20
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	22:36	0:24
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:19	0:09
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	44	39	5	.886	59:34	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	2	19:04	3:54
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	2	18:36	1:51
M. Amadio	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	15:59	0:00
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	15:27	3:28
D. Cozens	C	0	1	1	2	2	2	+2	0	15:25	3:28
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	15:07	0:00
C. Giroux	RW	1	0	1	7	2	0	+2	0	13:13	1:51
W. Foegele	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	12:43	1:46
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	+2	0	16:41	2:55
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	11:59	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	11:51	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	9:31	0:30
J. Spence	D	0	2	2	5	0	0	+2	0	19:51	2:19
T. Kleven	D	0	2	2	2	2	1	+2	0	18:13	0:13
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	3	1	3	-1	0	28:36	4:17
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	24:07	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	14:20	0:00
D. Gilbert	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	2	11:17	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	14	12	2	.857	60:00	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares13:28E. Cowan15:24N. Robertson12:25

Line 2M. Knies15:36M. Domi12:43W. Nylander14:50

Line 3D. Joshua10:47B. Groulx9:53M. Maccelli7:41

Line 4C. Jarnkrok7:38J. Quillan9:55S. Lorentz7:54

Pair 1J. McCabe17:27T. Stecher17:11

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson17:20B. Carlo13:34

Pair 3P. Myers13:09S. Benoit14:20

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio14:10S. Pinto14:29N. Cousins11:51

Line 2R. Greig12:02B. Tkachuk11:25D. Cozens10:51

Line 3D. Batherson10:56T. Stützle11:52C. Giroux10:10

Line 4L. Eller10:53W. Foegele10:57F. Zetterlund9:01

Pair 1T. Chabot17:51A. Zub17:55

Pair 2J. Spence16:18T. Kleven16:01

Pair 3N. Matinpalo13:19D. Gilbert11:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.6, OTT 3.7	TOR 2, OTT 5
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	TOR 22.3, OTT 34.3	TOR 14, OTT 44
Win chance	OTT 67%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.0	3	0.92	0	32%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.6	2	0.72	1	24%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.5	3	0.80	1	19%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.5	3	1.07	1	31%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.4	1	0.99	1	35%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.3	3	0.67	1	26%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	1	0.82	1	26%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.2	3	0.77	1	30%	1
TOR M. Knies	1.7	0	0.70	0	24%	0
OTT W. Foegele	1.7	1	0.38	1	17%	1
OTT R. Greig	1.7	3	0.44	1	16%	1
OTT J. Spence	1.6	5	0.44	2	8%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	2	0.52	1	21%	1
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	2	0.33	0	14%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.5	2	0.27	2	7%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.4	1	0.37	0	17%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	2	0.52	0	17%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.4	7	0.55	1	17%	1
OTT N. Cousins	1.4	1	0.36	0	13%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	1	0.44	0	9%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.3	3	0.35	2	14%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.3	0	0.44	0	13%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.2	2	0.34	0	7%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.1	3	0.23	0	9%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.0	0	0.12	0	4%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.14	1	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.32	0	6%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.0	1	0.18	0	5%	0
TOR B. Groulx	0.9	1	0.19	0	10%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.8	0	0.21	0	9%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.8	0	0.29	0	14%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.8	1	0.13	0	3%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.8	0	0.23	0	12%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	1	0.10	1	2%	0
TOR J. Quillan	0.6	0	0.10	0	7%	0
OTT D. Gilbert	0.5	0	0.22	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.