Game Recap: TOR 2, PHI 1 (OT), January 8, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR2

Final/OTThu, Jan 8, 2026Every game that night

PHI1

TOR beat PHI 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.84 expected goals to 3.40. D. Hildeby stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TOR	0	0	1	1	2
PHI	0	1	0	0	1

2nd 0:55PHIT. Konecny0.16 xG
3rd 14:04TORS. LaughtonSH0.07 xG
OT 2:48TORE. Cowan0.20 xG

Team Stats

TORPHI

23Shots on goal23

2.84Expected goals3.40

55Shot attempts64

195v5 shots on goal14

0/2Power play0/3

20Hits25

13Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways8

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.84 xGPHI 3.40 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR21 on goal, 2 scored

PHI23 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	17:54	2:53
S. Laughton	C	1	0	1	1	2	2	+1	0	14:04	0:00
E. Cowan	RW	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	13:28	0:06
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	20:40	2:49
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	19:04	3:04
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:47	2:50
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	16:47	1:11
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	15:32	1:04
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:31	1:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	12:28	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:37	0:56
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:24	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	25:00	1:42
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	4	23:25	0:06
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:11	2:19
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:52	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	17:22	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	23	22	1	.957	62:41	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Dvorak	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	21:26	3:42
T. Konecny	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	2	13:04	1:31
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	19:22	3:42
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	18:28	2:36
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	16:14	0:03
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	15:56	1:12
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	14:59	2:35
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:24	1:55
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:59	1:23
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:06	0:00
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:04	0:03
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	10:30	0:03
R. Ristolainen	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	-2	0	23:31	2:15
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	25:52	1:24
C. York	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	23:09	3:28
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	21:21	0:03
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:43	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	23	21	2	.913	62:33	OT loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1B. McMann15:33M. Domi14:28A. Matthews14:48

Line 2J. Tavares14:35M. Knies16:09M. Maccelli13:48

Line 3N. Roy11:24E. Cowan11:45N. Robertson10:41

Line 4C. Jarnkrok9:19S. Laughton9:58S. Lorentz9:29

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson22:16T. Stecher21:11

Pair 2M. Rielly15:50B. Carlo14:52

Pair 3P. Myers13:13S. Benoit14:26

PHI

Line 1T. Zegras14:18C. Dvorak15:19T. Konecny11:20

Line 2S. Couturier12:43O. Tippett15:19D. Barkey12:29

Line 3C. Grundstrom14:27N. Cates10:52M. Michkov11:27

Line 4G. Hathaway9:14R. Abols11:16N. Grebenkin13:06

Pair 1N. Seeler19:39R. Ristolainen19:08

Pair 2T. Sanheim20:26C. York16:28

Pair 3N. Juulsen12:31E. Andrae13:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoseph Woll PHI First game against TOR since he left (his team until Apr 2026)0 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.1, PHI 3.1	TOR 2, PHI 1
Total goals	6.2	3
Shots on goal	TOR 23.9, PHI 29.9	TOR 23, PHI 23
Win chance	PHI 51%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	3	1.03	0	42%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.7	3	0.62	0	25%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.6	1	0.88	1	28%	1
PHI T. Zegras	2.4	2	0.82	0	26%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.3	0	0.80	1	30%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.2	2	0.54	0	25%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	2	0.60	0	20%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	2.1	3	0.63	1	20%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.9	3	0.53	0	15%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.9	1	0.30	0	17%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.8	0	0.33	1	7%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	1	0.70	0	25%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	2	0.64	0	12%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	1	0.42	0	19%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.5	0	0.45	0	16%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	2	0.56	0	15%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.5	1	0.39	0	14%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.5	1	0.44	0	12%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	1	0.47	0	10%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.4	2	0.36	1	14%	1
PHI C. York	1.4	2	0.42	0	10%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.3	1	0.28	0	10%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.3	2	0.53	0	17%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	1	0.35	1	15%	1
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	2	0.22	0	4%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.1	1	0.44	0	16%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	0	0.27	0	11%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	0	0.22	0	6%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	2	0.16	0	4%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.0	1	0.13	0	4%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.0	0	0.25	0	4%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.9	0	0.18	0	9%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.8	0	0.26	0	13%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.8	1	0.32	0	11%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.7	0	0.11	0	3%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	2	0.12	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 28 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.