PIT beat TOR 5-2, with the chances close: 2.39 expected goals to 2.72. M. Marner led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Letang had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. T. Jarry stopped 25 of 27.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 2.72 xGPIT 2.39 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 25:23 | 3:48 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 2 | 22:43 | 3:48 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:12 | 3:45 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:50 | 3:47 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:27 | 3:42 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:34 | 0:06 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:13 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:03 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:19 | 0:13 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:46 | 0:00 |
| A. Nylander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:18 | 0:00 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:41 | 0:13 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:54 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:00 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:22 | 0:01 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:13 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:13 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 58:53 | Loss |
| A. Stolarz | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:32 | 3:29 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:47 | 3:06 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 3:15 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 3:52 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:19 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 3:02 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 3:53 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 3:21 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:02 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:02 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:01 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 23:19 | 3:03 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:40 | 3:41 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:20 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 3:13 |
| O. Pickering | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:02 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 59:31 | Win |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.3, PIT 3.0 | TOR 2, PIT 5 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 30.9, PIT 30.4 | TOR 27, PIT 29 |
| Win chance | TOR 56% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.1 | 4 | 1.18 | 2 | 46% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.6 | 5 | 1.11 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.4 | 4 | 0.92 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.0 | 3 | 1.04 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.8 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.5 | 3 | 0.64 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.3 | 4 | 1.23 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.1 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.0 | 7 | 0.52 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 2.0 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.9 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.9 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.7 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT J. Puljujarvi | 1.7 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR A. Nylander | 1.7 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.6 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.4 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR F. Minten | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR C. Dewar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 1.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.9 | 3 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT O. Pickering | 0.6 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR R. Reaves | 0.5 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.