Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
TOR4
FinalWed, Oct 28, 2026Every game that night
SEA5

SEA beat TOR 5-4, with the chances close: 2.38 expected goals to 2.02. G. McKenna led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). P. Grubauer stopped 17 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
TOR1124
SEA1315
  1. 1st 1:59SEAB. Catton0.13 xG
  2. 1st 19:14TORG. McKennaPP0.10 xG
  3. 2nd 0:16SEAJ. Mahura0.12 xG
  4. 2nd 1:46TORG. McKennaPP0.14 xG
  5. 2nd 3:33SEAC. StephensonPP0.02 xG
  6. 2nd 10:58SEAR. Evans0.04 xG
  7. 3rd 8:02TORJ. Roslovic0.32 xG
  8. 3rd 18:30TORA. Matthews0.08 xG
  9. 3rd 19:27SEAB. Montour0.04 xG

Team Stats

TORSEA
21Shots on goal17
2.02Expected goals2.38
50Shot attempts43
135v5 shots on goal13
2/3Power play1/5
32Hits23
11Blocked shots11
15Penalty minutes11
15Giveaways16
3Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.02 xGSEA 2.38 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdSEA goal, 1:59TOR goal, 19:14SEA goal, 0:16TOR goal, 1:46SEA goal, 3:33SEA goal, 10:58TOR goal, 8:02TOR goal, 18:30SEA goal, 19:27

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR22 on goal, 4 scored
SEA16 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. MatthewsC1234100020:082:26
G. McKennaLW2133000215:332:21
J. RoslovicC112100+1017:282:05
E. CowanRW011300+1219:080:21
W. NylanderRW000331-1022:132:26
N. PaulLW000030-2016:190:00
C. SissonsC000030-1013:490:00
B. DuhaimeLW000062-1013:350:00
T. BluegerC000020-1012:590:00
V. LettieriC000030079:150:00
Z. MacEwenRW000111-128:210:00
B. GroulxC000130006:230:00
D. RaddyshD022110-1024:492:26
T. StecherD0113230021:480:00
J. McCabeD000102-1023:120:00
M. RiellyD000002-2019:520:00
O. Ekman-LarssonD0000300016:450:00
D. MermisD000010-129:520:05
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Bobrovsky17125.70659:16Loss
A. Stolarz000–0:00

SEA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. BeniersC022010+2020:264:55
C. StephensonC1121010019:085:00
M. SamoskevichRW022010+1014:212:37
J. EberleRW011102+1218:134:33
B. CattonC101100+1215:052:31
F. GaudreauC011000-1014:490:03
B. MeyersC0112200011:380:13
B. McMannC000421+1019:054:46
S. WrightC0000100016:433:00
K. KakkoRW0000100014:102:24
R. WintertonC000101+1011:020:03
J. NymanRW000110+108:420:00
B. MontourD101131+3027:102:36
V. DunnD011202-1023:495:02
R. EvansD101252+2222:570:17
J. MahuraD101130+1011:070:00
A. LarssonD000001-2019:210:00
C. FleuryD000030+158:180:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Grubauer21174.81059:51Win
J. Daccord000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1E. Cowan16:01W. Nylander16:02N. Paul14:44
Line 2J. Roslovic13:53G. McKenna12:28A. Matthews15:20
Line 3B. Duhaime10:45T. Blueger9:07Z. MacEwen8:21
Line 4C. Sissons10:56V. Lettieri9:06B. Groulx6:14
Pair 1D. Raddysh19:43J. McCabe17:02
Pair 2M. Rielly18:41T. Stecher15:49
Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson13:52D. Mermis9:06

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle13:31M. Beniers14:16B. McMann13:52
Line 2S. Wright12:43B. Catton12:25K. Kakko11:37
Line 3C. Stephenson11:54M. Samoskevich11:29F. Gaudreau12:11
Line 4R. Winterton9:34B. Meyers10:05J. Nyman8:42
Pair 1B. Montour22:01R. Evans20:44
Pair 2A. Larsson16:55V. Dunn16:13
Pair 3J. Mahura10:40C. Fleury8:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

4 of 19 overs hit (21%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
TOR A. Matthews3.5+100-1204Over
SEA B. McMann2.5-132+1054Over
SEA B. Montour2.5-110+1001Under
TOR D. Raddysh2.5+100-1101Under
SEA J. Eberle2.5+130-1651Under
TOR J. Roslovic2.5+115-1351Under
SEA M. Samoskevich2.5+140-1900Under
SEA V. Dunn2.5+130-1402Under
TOR W. Nylander2.5-120-1023Over
SEA A. Larsson1.5+130-1600Under
SEA B. Catton1.5-118-1051Under
TOR E. Cowan1.5-125+1003Over
SEA K. Kakko1.5+115-1550Under
SEA M. Beniers1.5-150+1200Under
TOR M. Rielly1.5+115-1500Under
TOR N. Paul1.5+110-1200Under
SEA R. Winterton1.5+120-1501Under
SEA S. Wright1.5+115-1250Under
TOR V. Lettieri1.5+125-1400Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamBobby McMann SEA Faces TOR, his team until Mar 20264 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreTOR 3.4, SEA 3.4TOR 4, SEA 5
Total goals6.89
Shots on goalTOR 27.7, SEA 30.0TOR 21, SEA 17
Win chanceSEA 51%SEA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
TOR A. Matthews3.341.05340%1
SEA B. Montour2.910.64119%1
SEA B. McMann2.840.66029%0
TOR D. Raddysh2.810.67212%0
TOR W. Nylander2.631.07036%0
SEA V. Dunn2.420.68116%0
SEA M. Samoskevich2.200.51220%0
TOR J. Roslovic2.210.59223%1
SEA J. Eberle2.110.70124%0
TOR G. McKenna1.930.53317%2
SEA M. Beniers1.800.65224%0
SEA B. Catton1.710.51117%1
SEA R. Winterton1.710.36011%0
TOR N. Paul1.600.43021%0
TOR E. Cowan1.630.53119%0
TOR M. Rielly1.600.4708%0
TOR V. Lettieri1.600.27013%0
SEA A. Larsson1.500.3509%0
SEA S. Wright1.400.47019%0
SEA J. Nyman1.310.29012%0
SEA K. Kakko1.300.62018%0
SEA F. Gaudreau1.200.44118%0
TOR C. Sissons1.200.31013%0
TOR T. Blueger1.200.34012%0
SEA B. Meyers1.220.32113%0
TOR T. Stecher1.230.2416%0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.200.3205%0
SEA C. Stephenson1.010.66219%1
SEA C. Fleury1.000.1404%0
TOR J. McCabe1.010.2605%0
TOR B. Duhaime1.000.21010%0
TOR Z. MacEwen1.010.1406%0
SEA R. Evans1.020.40111%1
SEA J. Mahura0.910.2014%1
TOR D. Mermis0.800.1304%0
TOR B. Groulx0.810.1507%0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.