Game Recap: TOR 1, SJS 3, April 2, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR1

FinalThu, Apr 2, 2026Every game that night

SJS3

SJS beat TOR 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.05 expected goals to 2.12. P. Myers had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1.

Team Stats

TORSJS

18Shots on goal24

2.12Expected goals3.05

54Shot attempts57

155v5 shots on goal18

1/1Power play0/2

16Hits15

13Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes2

9Giveaways14

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.12 xGSJS 3.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR19 on goal, 1 scored

SJS25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	14:44	1:08
E. Cowan	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	14:41	1:08
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	14:17	1:08
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:03	1:08
B. Groulx	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	12:15	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:35	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	4	11:30	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	11:24	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:02	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:25	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	9:23	0:00
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:47	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	20:52	0:04
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	0	18:25	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:12	1:04
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	15:56	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	15:46	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	24	21	3	.875	48:40
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:42	2:58
K. Sherwood	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	13:19	1:02
W. Eklund	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	12:54	1:02
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:14	2:58
M. Misa	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	12:05	1:02
C. Graf	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	10:03	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	8:39	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	0	8:00	0:00
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:08	2:58
I. Chernyshov	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:45	1:02
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:16	2:57
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	0	8:52	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	+2	0	15:23	2:58
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	17:53	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	16:44	1:02
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:23	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:57	0:01
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	13:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	18	17	1	.944	48:40
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares15:59E. Cowan16:02W. Nylander15:19

Line 2C. Jarnkrok10:18S. Lorentz12:15J. Quillan10:01

Line 3M. Knies13:00M. Maccelli12:22B. Groulx12:34

Line 4D. Joshua13:58N. Robertson11:06M. Domi13:36

Pair 1M. Rielly20:39P. Myers20:54

Pair 2J. McCabe22:23B. Carlo15:56

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson7:03S. Benoit17:20

SJS

Line 1I. Chernyshov17:22M. Celebrini17:08W. Smith13:46

Line 2A. Wennberg13:51K. Sherwood14:51W. Eklund13:28

Line 3C. Graf12:44M. Misa13:22T. Toffoli10:38

Line 4B. Goodrow9:53Z. Ostapchuk8:58A. Gaudette10:31

Pair 1M. Ferraro18:56S. Mukhamadullin18:24

Pair 2N. Leddy16:53S. Dickinson19:47

Pair 3D. Orlov14:47V. Desharnais15:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.5, SJS 3.2	TOR 1, SJS 3
Total goals	6.8	4
Shots on goal	TOR 26.6, SJS 31.1	TOR 18, SJS 24
Win chance	TOR 54%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.9	2	1.27	0	35%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.9	2	1.29	1	43%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.6	1	0.89	0	27%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.6	1	0.98	1	36%	1
SJS K. Sherwood	2.5	1	0.48	1	22%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.1	1	0.57	1	22%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.1	3	0.59	1	16%	1
TOR M. Knies	1.9	1	0.82	0	29%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.9	2	0.52	0	23%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.8	0	0.59	1	21%	0
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.7	0	0.54	0	16%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	0	0.59	0	13%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.6	2	0.49	1	18%	1
TOR M. Maccelli	1.5	0	0.59	0	18%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.4	0	0.44	1	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	0	0.52	0	10%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	1	0.60	1	17%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.3	4	0.49	1	11%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.3	1	0.51	0	15%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.3	2	0.27	0	4%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	2	0.29	0	15%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	0	0.27	0	7%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.2	1	0.19	0	5%	0
TOR B. Groulx	1.2	0	0.24	0	12%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.1	4	0.14	0	5%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.1	1	0.42	0	20%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	0	0.41	0	8%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.1	2	0.27	0	8%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.1	1	0.32	0	16%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	2	0.25	0	11%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	1	0.17	1	8%	0
TOR J. Quillan	0.8	0	0.17	0	10%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	2	0.13	0	3%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.8	1	0.11	1	6%	1
SJS V. Desharnais	0.7	1	0.15	0	2%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.7	0	0.26	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.