Game Recap: TOR 1, STL 5, March 28, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR1

FinalSat, Mar 28, 2026Every game that night

STL5

STL beat TOR 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.66 expected goals to 1.47. STL outshot TOR 38 to 13. D. Holloway led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. McCabe had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Binnington stopped 12 of 13.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	0	1	1
STL	0	2	3	5

2nd 5:21STLJ. Snuggerud0.23 xG
2nd 10:35STLJ. Holl0.24 xG
3rd 5:07TORJ. McCabe0.01 xG
3rd 6:46STLP. SuterSH0.16 xG
3rd 9:10STLD. Holloway0.26 xG
3rd 18:24STLP. BrobergPP0.08 xG

Team Stats

TORSTL

13Shots on goal38

1.47Expected goals3.66

34Shot attempts59

115v5 shots on goal35

0/3Power play1/2

23Hits13

10Blocked shots6

4Penalty minutes6

25Giveaways8

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 1.47 xGSTL 3.66 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR12 on goal, 1 scored

STL37 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Quillan	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	16:07	0:23
D. Joshua	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	15:03	1:48
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	20:03	2:32
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	2	18:44	2:22
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	17:43	3:10
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:23	3:11
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	15:26	2:31
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:48	2:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	14:09	3:12
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:22	1:41
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:30	0:00
M. Pezzetta	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:49	0:23
J. McCabe	D	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	21:33	0:47
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:00	2:57
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	19:26	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	18:46	3:03
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	17:43	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	17:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	38	33	5	.868	59:54	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	19:57	1:56
D. Holloway	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	0	18:17	1:55
J. Neighbours	LW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+2	0	14:38	1:52
J. Kyrou	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	13:37	1:03
J. Snuggerud	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	17:36	1:52
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	15:38	1:01
P. Suter	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:09	1:01
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:07	0:01
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	13:42	1:00
O. Stenberg	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:34	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11:37	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	4	10:38	0:00
P. Broberg	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	21:51	2:08
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:11	0:03
J. Holl	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	16:21	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	22:37	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	+1	0	19:59	0:48
T. Lindstein	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	+1	2	16:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	13	12	1	.923	60:00	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1W. Nylander16:53E. Cowan16:22J. Tavares12:48

Line 2N. Robertson14:04M. Domi13:12M. Knies11:42

Line 3C. Jarnkrok10:18J. Quillan14:23M. Pezzetta8:20

Line 4M. Maccelli10:57D. Joshua13:15S. Lorentz10:24

Pair 1S. Benoit16:55T. Stecher16:39

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson17:02J. McCabe18:49

Pair 3M. Rielly15:43B. Carlo17:04

STL

Line 1R. Thomas16:07J. Snuggerud15:44D. Holloway15:11

Line 2J. Berggren14:06D. Dvorsky12:42O. Stenberg12:09

Line 3J. Kyrou12:34J. Neighbours12:40P. Buchnevich12:22

Line 4A. Toropchenko9:59J. Finley9:51P. Suter9:08

Pair 1C. Parayko19:32T. Lindstein16:08

Pair 2J. Holl16:21C. Fowler17:57

Pair 3L. Mailloux16:00P. Broberg16:19

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrandon Carlo STL First game against TOR since he left (his team until Apr 2026)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.9, STL 3.2	TOR 1, STL 5
Total goals	6.1	6
Shots on goal	TOR 25.3, STL 29.9	TOR 13, STL 38
Win chance	STL 56%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
STL D. Holloway	3.1	4	0.89	2	29%	1
STL J. Snuggerud	2.8	4	0.75	1	24%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	1	0.71	2	28%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.6	0	1.02	0	37%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.4	1	0.80	0	32%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.0	2	0.72	1	24%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.8	1	1.01	2	24%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	0	0.69	0	25%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.7	4	0.37	0	12%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.7	2	0.36	0	11%	0
STL P. Suter	1.6	1	0.45	1	19%	1
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	2	0.47	0	9%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	0	0.39	0	19%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.5	1	0.51	1	12%	1
TOR E. Cowan	1.5	0	0.42	0	17%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	0	0.44	0	8%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.4	4	0.35	0	17%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	1	0.49	0	16%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.3	1	0.44	0	17%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.3	1	0.45	0	14%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.3	2	0.50	2	21%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	2	0.46	1	8%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	3	0.23	0	10%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.2	1	0.16	0	3%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	4	0.34	1	6%	1
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	0	0.17	0	4%	0
STL O. Stenberg	1.1	2	0.37	0	12%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	1	0.32	1	16%	0
STL T. Lindstein	0.9	3	0.19	0	5%	0
STL J. Finley	0.9	0	0.20	0	10%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.8	1	0.23	0	12%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	1	0.11	0	2%	0
STL J. Holl	0.7	1	0.17	1	3%	1
TOR J. Quillan	0.7	0	0.09	1	7%	0
TOR M. Pezzetta	0.5	0	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.