Game Recap: TOR 5, TBL 3, November 30, 2024

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Game Recap

TOR5

FinalSat, Nov 30, 2024Every game that night

TBL3

TOR beat TBL 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.74 expected goals to 3.41. TBL outshot TOR 41 to 29. C. Tanev led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Atkinson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Woll stopped 38 of 41.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	1	3	1	5
TBL	0	0	3	3

1st 7:13TORM. Knies0.08 xG
2nd 8:06TORC. Tanev0.07 xG
2nd 8:39TORN. Robertson0.02 xG
2nd 18:59TORJ. Tavares0.11 xG
3rd 11:21TBLM. Eyssimont0.05 xG
3rd 15:19TBLJ. Guentzel0.05 xG
3rd 17:38TBLC. AtkinsonPP0.12 xG
3rd 18:44TORW. NylanderEN0.71 xG

Team Stats

TORTBL

29Shots on goal41

2.74Expected goals3.41

45Shot attempts74

275v5 shots on goal25

0/1Power play1/3

22Hits20

15Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes2

10Giveaways9

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.74 xGTBL 3.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR29 on goal, 5 scored

TBL40 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	4	0	1	+1	0	21:08	1:11
A. Matthews	C	0	2	2	2	0	1	+2	2	20:23	1:12
M. Knies	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	19:50	1:11
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	4	0	2	+2	0	20:35	1:41
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	3	2	2	+1	0	18:25	1:13
P. Holmberg	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:21	0:19
F. Minten	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	11:31	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	11:21	0:47
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	10:52	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	10:51	0:00
A. Nylander	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:42	0:49
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:22	0:00
C. Tanev	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	22:38	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	1	1	2	9	1	+1	0	22:13	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	21:53	0:48
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	21:31	0:49
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	18:05	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+2	0	11:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	41	38	3	.927	59:42	Win
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Hagel	LW	0	2	2	6	0	2	-1	0	28:45	3:42
J. Guentzel	C	1	0	1	6	1	2	-2	0	25:14	3:42
M. Eyssimont	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	13:52	0:00
C. Atkinson	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	11:28	0:40
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	24:36	3:34
B. Point	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	-2	2	24:14	3:42
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	15:11	0:29
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	13:46	0:29
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:35	0:00
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	12:18	0:29
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:08	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	2	2	3	1	0	-2	0	23:32	3:42
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	12:53	0:37
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	19:43	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	18:41	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	14:00	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	11:57	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	28	24	4	.857	56:00	Loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDarren Raddysh TOR First game back in Tampa, his team until May 20261 A, 1 SOG
Old teamPontus Holmberg TBL Faces TOR, his team until May 20251 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.4, TBL 3.2	TOR 5, TBL 3
Total goals	6.6	8
Shots on goal	TOR 30.2, TBL 28.3	TOR 29, TBL 41
Win chance	TOR 53%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.1	2	1.19	2	47%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.6	4	1.14	1	39%	1
TOR J. Tavares	3.3	3	0.91	1	32%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.9	6	1.00	1	36%	1
TBL B. Point	2.4	4	1.01	0	40%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.4	6	0.98	2	31%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.3	4	1.22	2	31%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.0	3	0.71	2	11%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	2	0.64	1	11%	0
TOR A. Nylander	1.9	0	0.42	0	21%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	2	0.58	2	23%	1
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.7	3	0.25	1	11%	1
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	2	0.34	1	17%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.7	5	0.65	0	23%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.6	0	0.38	0	8%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.3	0	0.31	0	14%	0
TBL C. Atkinson	1.2	5	0.25	1	12%	1
TOR F. Minten	1.2	1	0.35	1	15%	0
TOR C. Dewar	1.1	0	0.25	0	11%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	1	0.21	0	11%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	1	0.33	1	14%	0
TBL C. Sheary	1.0	3	0.31	0	12%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	1	0.21	0	12%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.0	1	0.26	1	5%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	1	0.32	0	7%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	0	0.28	0	3%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	2	0.36	0	6%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.9	0	0.27	0	6%	0
TBL N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.23	0	4%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	2	0.22	0	11%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.8	0	0.13	0	9%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	0	0.19	0	2%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	2	0.10	1	3%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	2	0.21	2	3%	1
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.6	2	0.15	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.