Game Recap: TOR 4, TBL 3 (OT), April 9, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR4

Final/OTWed, Apr 9, 2025Every game that night

TBL3

TOR beat TBL 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.78 expected goals to 3.55. M. Knies scored three for TOR. M. Knies had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. A. Stolarz stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TOR	2	0	1	1	4
TBL	1	0	2	0	3

1st 1:13TORM. Marner0.18 xG
1st 3:33TORM. Knies0.34 xG
1st 18:58TBLN. Perbix0.02 xG
3rd 0:50TBLO. BjorkstrandPP0.12 xG
3rd 2:03TORM. KniesPP0.66 xG
3rd 11:05TBLV. HedmanPP0.07 xG
OT 2:56TORM. Knies0.34 xG

Team Stats

TORTBL

31Shots on goal28

4.78Expected goals3.55

62Shot attempts90

235v5 shots on goal20

1/2Power play2/4

18Hits25

33Blocked shots14

15Penalty minutes11

12Giveaways13

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 4.78 xGTBL 3.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR31 on goal, 4 scored

TBL28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	1	2	3	3	1	1	+2	0	23:22	1:48
A. Matthews	C	0	3	3	2	0	2	+3	0	22:20	1:48
M. Knies	LW	3	0	3	6	1	0	+3	2	17:42	1:34
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	2	16:22	1:25
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	15:35	1:48
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	2	5	0	2	14:18	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:22	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:43	0:46
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:17	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:04	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	7	11:27	0:55
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	10:18	0:32
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	3	0	7	+1	0	20:29	0:32
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	25:14	0:32
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	2	0	5	0	0	23:12	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	22:19	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	+1	0	20:56	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	7:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	28	25	3	.893	62:56	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Hagel	LW	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	20:42	2:17
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	19:45	6:16
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-2	0	25:02	6:29
A. Cirelli	C	0	1	1	5	0	2	0	0	23:13	6:10
B. Point	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	5	21:59	4:45
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	3	5	1	-1	0	19:53	0:43
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:35	0:44
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:33	0:34
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	12:49	0:01
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	10:36	0:02
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2:37	0:00
V. Hedman	D	1	1	2	4	1	3	-1	0	25:43	6:32
N. Perbix	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	15:10	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	18:49	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	2	14:43	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	4	14:19	0:05
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:07	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:28	0:42

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	31	27	4	.871	62:56	OT loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDarren Raddysh TOR First game back in Tampa, his team until May 20261 SOG
Old teamNick Paul TOR First game back in Tampa, his team until May 20261 SOG
Old teamPontus Holmberg TBL Faces TOR, his team until May 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.9, TBL 3.8	TOR 4, TBL 3
Total goals	6.7	7
Shots on goal	TOR 26.6, TBL 31.0	TOR 31, TBL 28
Win chance	TBL 63%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.7	2	0.92	3	39%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.3	2	1.55	1	35%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.7	3	0.77	0	31%	0
TBL B. Point	2.7	2	1.08	0	41%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.6	1	0.95	2	31%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	2	0.70	1	29%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.3	4	0.84	2	14%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.2	2	0.40	0	21%	0
TBL N. Paul	2.0	1	0.53	0	24%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.0	6	0.55	3	23%	3
TOR M. Marner	1.9	3	0.90	3	25%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	5	0.63	1	24%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.7	1	0.53	2	20%	1
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	2	0.29	0	16%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	3	0.52	0	16%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	3	0.43	1	8%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	1	0.31	0	6%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	0	0.29	0	12%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.3	0	0.40	0	12%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.2	2	0.13	0	4%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.2	0	0.29	0	13%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.2	1	0.35	0	5%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	0	0.18	0	10%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.1	0	0.39	0	4%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.0	2	0.32	0	12%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.17	0	9%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.9	2	0.23	0	13%	0
TOR B. Carlo	0.9	1	0.14	0	4%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	1	0.26	0	4%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.9	1	0.26	0	5%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	0.8	1	0.20	0	9%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.12	0	8%	0
TBL N. Perbix	0.7	1	0.22	1	4%	1
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	2	0.19	0	3%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	1	0.10	0	2%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.6	1	0.19	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.