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Game Recap
TOR2
TBL4
TBL beat TOR 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 6.10 expected goals to 3.69. B. Point led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Point had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 32 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| TBL | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
- 2nd 7:07TBLB. Point0.06 xG
- 2nd 7:58TBLG. Goncalves0.39 xG
- 3rd 2:59TBLN. Kucherov0.07 xG
- 3rd 16:19TORJ. TavaresPP0.21 xG
- 3rd 16:30TBLB. Point0.15 xG
- 3rd 17:13TORM. Knies0.02 xG
Team Stats
TORTBL
34Shots on goal36
3.69Expected goals6.10
58Shot attempts76
225v5 shots on goal26
1/2Power play0/4
18Hits17
17Blocked shots11
8Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways9
7Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 3.69 xGTBL 6.10 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 2:22 |
| M. Knies | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 | 2:23 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 22:54 | 2:22 |
| J. Tavares | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:29 | 2:21 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:31 | 2:01 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:22 | 0:00 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:24 | 1:03 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:15 | 1:14 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:58 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:04 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:11 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22:40 | 2:16 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 22:00 | 0:12 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:09 | 1:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:09 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 36 | 32 | 4 | .889 | 55:20 | Loss |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 23:57 | 7:37 |
| B. Point | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 22:16 | 7:29 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:13 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:10 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:25 | 7:37 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:30 | 2:05 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:18 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:10 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | 5:37 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:59 | 0:13 |
| S. Sabourin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:54 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:23 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:55 | 6:50 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:04 | 0:08 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 1:10 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TOR
Line 1A. Matthews17:06M. Domi14:18B. McMann12:01
Line 2J. Tavares13:04W. Nylander14:24M. Maccelli11:53
Line 3N. Roy11:20N. Robertson10:46M. Knies13:07
Line 4S. Laughton6:16S. Lorentz5:30C. Jarnkrok5:56
Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson18:34J. McCabe16:50
Pair 3S. Benoit12:30T. Stecher13:34
TBL
Line 1Y. Gourde15:54Z. Girgensons14:43P. Holmberg15:04
Line 2N. Kucherov14:37B. Point13:04G. Goncalves11:38
Line 3B. Hagel14:39J. Guentzel12:19D. James10:46
Line 4O. Bjorkstrand6:52S. Sabourin5:54
Pair 1D. Raddysh15:56J. Moser15:50
Pair 2R. McDonagh13:02E. Cernak14:03
Pair 3C. D'Astous14:46E. Lilleberg8:05
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 2.9, TBL 3.9 | TOR 2, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 25.1, TBL 32.3 | TOR 34, TBL 36 |
| Win chance | TBL 65% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.4 | 2 | 0.89 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.3 | 2 | 1.63 | 3 | 36% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 3.3 | 4 | 1.17 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 5 | 1.09 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.6 | 3 | 0.93 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.2 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.1 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 2.0 | 4 | 0.74 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.0 | 5 | 0.78 | 3 | 30% | 2 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.6 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.6 | 3 | 0.56 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.6 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.5 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.5 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 1.5 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TOR M. Maccelli | 1.5 | 4 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR T. Stecher | 1.2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.0 | 2 | 0.38 | 3 | 13% | 1 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR N. Roy | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL S. Sabourin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.