Game Recap: TOR 4, VAN 2, October 31, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR4

FinalSat, Oct 31, 2026Every game that night

VAN2

TOR beat VAN 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.87 expected goals to 2.56. T. Blueger led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Rossi had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. A. Stolarz stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	1	2	1	4
VAN	1	0	1	2

1st 1:23TORW. Nylander0.17 xG
1st 10:30VANB. BoeserPP0.18 xG
2nd 3:47TORA. Matthews0.04 xG
2nd 12:34TORZ. MacEwen0.03 xG
3rd 9:27VANM. Sasson0.20 xG
3rd 18:24TORT. BluegerEN0.89 xG

Team Stats

TORVAN

28Shots on goal28

3.87Expected goals2.56

52Shot attempts61

235v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play1/4

31Hits26

21Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways10

3Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.87 xGVAN 2.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR28 on goal, 4 scored

VAN28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	2	19:43	2:32
T. Blueger	C	1	1	2	2	3	1	+2	0	15:24	0:00
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:13	2:29
J. Roslovic	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	17:42	2:31
N. Paul	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	17:32	0:20
Z. MacEwen	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	9:16	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	15:51	0:00
G. McKenna	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:01	2:33
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:58	0:23
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	12:32	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	5	7	0	+1	0	11:00	0:00
V. Lettieri	C	0	0	0	1	5	3	0	0	10:43	0:21
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	0	0	5	+1	0	23:19	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	21:49	2:29
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	2	17:58	0:23
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	+2	0	19:21	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	18:22	0:19
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	2	16:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	28	26	2	.929	60:00	Win
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	-2	0	19:45	4:25
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	1	1	4	3	1	-2	0	19:00	4:08
M. Sasson	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	12:02	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	10:10	0:00
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	1	3	5	-2	0	21:09	4:21
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	17:26	3:58
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	17:04	2:08
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:56	2:03
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	14:39	2:29
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	14:25	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	13:38	2:19
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:58	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	-1	0	26:57	4:07
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	22:49	2:22
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	20:46	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:13	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	11:31	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	10:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	27	24	3	.889	58:13	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1J. Roslovic15:11A. Matthews15:35W. Nylander15:49

Line 2C. Sissons12:09D. Joshua11:00G. McKenna10:28

Line 3N. Paul14:18E. Cowan11:34V. Lettieri10:22

Line 4T. Blueger10:42B. Duhaime10:05Z. MacEwen9:16

Pair 1D. Raddysh19:20J. McCabe17:25

Pair 2M. Rielly16:56C. Tanev13:44

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson15:42T. Stecher14:49

VAN

Line 1M. Rossi13:28J. Lekkerimäki13:24D. O'Connor13:14

Line 2B. Boeser12:53E. Pettersson13:04J. DeBrusk12:00

Line 3P. Cotter11:51M. Sasson11:46B. Gallagher10:10

Line 4L. Karlsson12:21L. Ohgren11:00J. Quillan11:58

Pair 1E. Pettersson18:32F. Hronek19:09

Pair 2J. Oleksiak11:15T. Willander18:54

Pair 3L. Schenn9:41Z. Buium19:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 17 overs hit (35%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	-106	-110	2	Under
VAN B. Boeser	2.5	+154	-170	1	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	2.5	-102	-115	2	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	+104	-115	2	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	2.5	+118	-140	1	Under
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	-132	+120	2	Under
TOR C. Sissons	1.5	+125	-185	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	1.5	-115	-110	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	1.5	-168	+135	1	Under
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	-115	+105	3	Over
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.5	-114	-105	4	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	-125	+110	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	1.5	+115	-140	3	Over
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	-114	-110	2	Over
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	+105	-155	4	Over
TOR N. Paul	1.5	-120	-110	2	Over
TOR V. Lettieri	1.5	+105	-130	1	Under

6 of 32 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	-102	-120	1	Over
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+210	-300	1	Over
TOR B. Duhaime	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
TOR C. Sissons	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
TOR D. Joshua	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+430	-750	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+425	-600	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+270	-350	0	Under
VAN E. Pettersson	0.5	+1300	–	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+210	-280	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+333	-420	0	Under
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.5	+1800	-3500	0	Under
TOR J. Quillan	0.5	+700	–	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+400	-450	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
VAN M. Sasson	0.5	+700	-1000	1	Over
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+330	-450	0	Under
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+850	-2500	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
TOR T. Blueger	0.5	+600	-1000	1	Over
TOR T. Stecher	0.5	+1400	-2500	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
TOR V. Lettieri	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+131	-180	1	Over
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+1000	-2500	0	Under
TOR Z. MacEwen	0.5	+850	-1600	1	Over

8 of 20 overs hit (40%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	-120	+105	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
TOR C. Sissons	0.5	+230	-325	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+105	-125	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+105	-140	1	Over
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+225	-275	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+230	-295	1	Over
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+265	-325	1	Over
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+150	-185	1	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+320	-300	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+180	-225	1	Over
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+245	-250	0	Under
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+230	-320	1	Over
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+255	-350	0	Under
TOR T. Stecher	0.5	+380	-450	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	-115	+105	1	Over
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+240	-325	0	Under

9 of 21 overs hit (43%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TOR A. Matthews	1.5	+125	-135	1	Under
TOR W. Nylander	1.5	+165	-200	2	Over
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	-120	+105	1	Over
TOR C. Sissons	0.5	+135	-185	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+165	-220	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	-135	+115	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	-120	+100	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	-120	-105	1	Over
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	-115	-105	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+125	-155	1	Over
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+205	-260	1	Over
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	-155	+130	1	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+150	-155	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+185	-230	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+140	-160	1	Over
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+135	-150	0	Under
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+130	-160	1	Over
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+195	-250	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+165	-220	0	Under
TOR T. Stecher	0.5	+300	-340	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+200	-255	0	Under

3 of 12 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+175	-190	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+260	-325	1	Over
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+525	-1000	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+210	-275	1	Over
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+425	-650	1	Over
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+333	-500	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+195	-215	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
TOR A. Stolarz	23.5	+100	-122	26	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	+105	-150	1	Under
TOR J. McCabe	1.5	-170	+120	5	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDakota Joshua TOR Faces VAN, his team until Apr 20255 SOG
HometownMorgan Rielly TOR Plays in his hometown1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.7, VAN 3.2	TOR 4, VAN 2
Total goals	6.9	6
Shots on goal	TOR 28.0, VAN 27.5	TOR 28, VAN 28
Win chance	TOR 58%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	2	1.19	1	42%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.8	2	0.67	0	28%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.7	2	1.24	2	39%	1
TOR D. Raddysh	2.6	2	0.83	1	15%	0
TOR J. Roslovic	2.2	1	0.69	1	24%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.1	1	0.75	1	28%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	2.0	1	0.94	0	29%	0
TOR G. McKenna	1.9	3	0.63	0	19%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.8	0	0.54	0	19%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.8	3	0.69	1	12%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.7	0	0.39	0	17%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.7	1	0.64	0	20%	0
TOR N. Paul	1.6	2	0.48	1	22%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.6	4	0.55	1	20%	0
TOR V. Lettieri	1.5	1	0.28	0	12%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.5	3	0.40	0	16%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.4	2	0.55	1	10%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.3	4	0.53	0	19%	0
TOR C. Sissons	1.2	0	0.35	0	13%	0
TOR T. Blueger	1.2	2	0.37	2	12%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	1.2	3	0.29	0	10%	0
VAN J. Oleksiak	1.1	1	0.28	0	8%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	1	0.27	0	6%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.0	0	0.37	0	6%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	2	0.31	1	15%	1
VAN T. Willander	1.0	0	0.33	0	8%	0
TOR B. Duhaime	1.0	0	0.24	0	11%	0
TOR Z. MacEwen	1.0	3	0.15	1	6%	1
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.33	1	6%	0
VAN P. Cotter	0.9	0	0.31	0	15%	0
VAN J. Quillan	0.9	1	0.23	0	10%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.8	0	0.29	0	6%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.5	1	0.22	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.