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Game Recap
TOR4
WSH3
TOR beat WSH 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.83 expected goals to 3.29. A. Protas led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. McMann had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Woll stopped 24 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| WSH | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 11:12WSHT. Raddysh0.17 xG
- 1st 12:11TORB. McMann0.18 xG
- 1st 18:33WSHD. Strome0.45 xG
- 2nd 17:48WSHA. Protas0.16 xG
- 3rd 15:51TORW. Nylander0.74 xG
- 3rd 19:12TORM. MarnerPP0.13 xG
- OT 4:13TORJ. Tavares0.29 xG
Team Stats
TORWSH
34Shots on goal27
3.83Expected goals3.29
62Shot attempts60
295v5 shots on goal21
1/2Power play0/1
13Hits21
12Blocked shots15
2Penalty minutes4
10Giveaways16
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 3.83 xGWSH 3.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:24 | 0:54 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:16 | 2:05 |
| J. Tavares | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:56 | 0:54 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:33 | 0:54 |
| B. McMann | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 | 1:11 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:58 | 1:16 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 1:11 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:34 | 0:00 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:08 | 0:54 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:01 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:55 | 1:11 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 20:15 | 0:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Hakanpää | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 62:54 | Win |
| A. Stolarz | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:28 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:31 | 1:13 |
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:39 | 1:55 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 2:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:51 | 1:10 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:50 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:47 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:18 | 0:05 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:43 | 2:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:27 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 34 | 30 | 4 | .882 | 64:13 | OT loss |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.1, WSH 3.2 | TOR 4, WSH 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 28.8, WSH 28.1 | TOR 34, WSH 27 |
| Win chance | WSH 51% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.3 | 2 | 1.00 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.1 | 1 | 0.78 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.0 | 4 | 0.87 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.2 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.2 | 2 | 1.10 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 6 | 0.61 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.1 | 8 | 0.37 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.0 | 4 | 0.65 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.9 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 1 | 0.90 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.8 | 5 | 0.58 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 1.8 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.7 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH J. Vrana | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.6 | 4 | 0.48 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 1.0 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR C. Dewar | 0.9 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 0.9 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR A. Steeves | 0.8 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR J. Hakanpää | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR R. Reaves | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.