Game Recap: UTA 2, ANA 3 (OT), November 17, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA2

Final/OTMon, Nov 17, 2025Every game that night

ANA3

ANA beat UTA 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.72 expected goals to 1.60. ANA outshot UTA 26 to 18. A. Killorn led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. LaCombe had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. L. Dostal stopped 16 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
UTA	0	1	1	0	2
ANA	1	0	1	1	3

1st 15:52ANAJ. LaCombe0.18 xG
2nd 18:14UTAD. Guenther0.07 xG
3rd 9:19UTAL. Cooley0.08 xG
3rd 19:55ANAT. Terry0.05 xG
OT 1:50ANAO. Zellweger0.28 xG

Team Stats

UTAANA

18Shots on goal26

1.60Expected goals2.72

44Shot attempts59

175v5 shots on goal18

0/1Power play0/1

17Hits20

15Blocked shots12

9Penalty minutes9

19Giveaways17

5Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 1.60 xGANA 2.72 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA18 on goal, 2 scored

ANA26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	19:40	1:08
L. Cooley	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:21	0:49
D. Guenther	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	-1	0	15:40	1:11
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	19:40	1:11
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:45	1:10
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	2	16:01	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:57	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:24	0:52
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:35	0:50
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	12:34	0:49
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:05	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	5	8:39	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	2	24:18	1:16
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	22:52	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	21:52	0:44
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	20:15	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	16:51	0:00
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	26	23	3	.885	61:38	OT loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Killorn	LW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	14:48	1:01
T. Terry	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	2	21:19	0:59
C. Gauthier	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	20:03	1:01
C. Kreider	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	19:56	0:59
B. Sennecke	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	2	17:12	0:59
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:07	1:01
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	22:40	0:59
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:21	1:01
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	12:26	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	11:21	0:00
N. Nesterenko	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:35	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	5	8:39	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	1	0	1	5	0	1	+1	0	25:29	0:59
O. Zellweger	D	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	23:12	1:01
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	25:16	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	19:51	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	12:52	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	12:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	18	16	2	.889	60:02	Win
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz15:26C. Keller15:11L. Cooley15:57

Line 2L. Crouse14:27J. McBain13:48J. Peterka15:22

Line 3D. Guenther12:36B. Hayton11:55M. Carcone11:33

Line 4K. Stenlund10:30B. Tanev10:05L. O'Brien8:39

Pair 1N. Schmidt18:54J. Marino19:31

Pair 2I. Cole16:45N. DeSimone15:48

Pair 3M. Sergachev19:30D. Simashev14:03

ANA

Line 1C. Kreider17:19T. Terry17:53L. Carlsson17:51

Line 2C. Gauthier14:47B. Sennecke13:41M. McTavish11:38

Line 3A. Killorn11:28F. Vatrano11:26R. Strome11:21

Line 4R. Johnston8:39N. Nesterenko8:55J. Harkins11:21

Pair 1J. Trouba21:14O. Zellweger20:15

Pair 2J. LaCombe20:01D. Helleson18:12

Pair 3R. Gudas11:59I. Moore12:00

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.4, ANA 3.0	UTA 2, ANA 3
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	UTA 31.4, ANA 26.7	UTA 18, ANA 26
Win chance	UTA 57%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.0	5	0.83	1	29%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.9	5	0.81	1	29%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.7	1	1.02	0	32%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.6	2	0.91	1	28%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.3	2	0.88	1	30%	1
ANA T. Terry	2.3	3	0.83	1	28%	1
UTA J. Peterka	2.1	0	0.69	0	25%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.1	2	0.87	0	29%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.0	1	0.68	1	34%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	2.0	0	0.72	1	13%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	3	0.38	0	20%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	0	0.43	0	17%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.7	5	0.55	1	12%	1
ANA O. Zellweger	1.7	4	0.29	1	8%	1
ANA J. Trouba	1.7	1	0.38	0	8%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.7	0	0.54	0	20%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.6	1	0.51	2	22%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	1.6	1	0.35	0	18%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	1.5	0	0.55	1	20%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.5	1	0.38	1	8%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.5	1	0.36	0	17%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.2	0	0.42	1	13%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.2	0	0.32	0	13%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	0	0.32	0	14%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.2	1	0.34	0	14%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.2	0	0.34	0	8%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.1	0	0.26	0	6%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.1	0	0.16	0	6%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.0	2	0.12	0	3%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
UTA J. Marino	1.0	1	0.37	1	5%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.9	0	0.23	0	3%	0
ANA R. Gudas	0.9	1	0.18	0	3%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.7	0	0.12	0	6%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	1	0.13	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.