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Game Recap
UTA5
BUF2
UTA beat BUF 5-2, with the chances close: 2.97 expected goals to 2.28. M. Kesselring led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Schmaltz had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. K. Vejmelka stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| BUF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 10:14BUFT. Kozak0.07 xG
- 2nd 3:18UTAM. Kesselring0.05 xG
- 2nd 3:42UTAM. Sergachev0.01 xG
- 2nd 19:08UTAN. Schmaltz0.03 xG
- 3rd 2:11UTAJ. McBain0.23 xG
- 3rd 12:07UTAK. Stenlund0.06 xG
- 3rd 17:40BUFJ.Kulich0.43 xG
Team Stats
UTABUF
28Shots on goal25
2.97Expected goals2.28
55Shot attempts63
275v5 shots on goal22
0/0Power play0/3
9Hits39
19Blocked shots13
11Penalty minutes5
11Giveaways12
6Takeaways11
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 2.97 xGBUF 2.28 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:46 | 0:00 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:31 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 5 | 16:12 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 23:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 23:01 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 4 | 21:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:59 | 0:00 |
| R. Bortuzzo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 59:33 | Win |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 3:55 |
| J.Kulich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:30 | 1:49 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 12:17 | 0:02 |
| T. Kozak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:12 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:40 | 3:57 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:44 | 4:09 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:18 | 2:30 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:45 | 3:23 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:27 | 1:50 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:08 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:08 | 1:52 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:06 | 4:15 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:19 | 1:45 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:14 | 0:12 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 28 | 23 | 5 | .821 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.0, BUF 3.3 | UTA 5, BUF 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 27.3, BUF 30.8 | UTA 28, BUF 25 |
| Win chance | BUF 54% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.3 | 1 | 0.94 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.5 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.4 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.4 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 1 | 0.88 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.3 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.1 | 0 | 0.65 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.1 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.9 | 5 | 0.76 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.6 | 3 | 0.59 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.6 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.6 | 4 | 0.49 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.4 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.3 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 3 | 0.18 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.9 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.8 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.5 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA R. Bortuzzo | 0.4 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.