Game Recap: UTA 2, BUF 1 (OT), November 4, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA2

Final/OTTue, Nov 4, 2025Every game that night

BUF1

UTA beat BUF 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.73 expected goals to 2.00. UTA outshot BUF 35 to 18. C. Keller led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Keller had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. K. Vejmelka stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
UTA	0	0	1	1	2
BUF	0	0	1	0	1

3rd 3:58UTAN. Schmaltz0.12 xG
3rd 7:50BUFN. Ostlund0.43 xG
OT 0:47UTAC. Keller0.24 xG

Team Stats

UTABUF

35Shots on goal18

3.73Expected goals2.00

79Shot attempts36

285v5 shots on goal16

0/2Power play0/2

15Hits20

9Blocked shots21

4Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways11

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.73 xGBUF 2.00 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA35 on goal, 2 scored

BUF18 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	1	1	2	6	0	0	+2	0	20:07	3:25
N. Schmaltz	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	20:46	2:58
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:49	3:26
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:40	3:28
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	+1	0	16:24	0:36
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	15:37	0:32
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:53	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:30	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	13:25	0:00
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:42	1:02
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	2	11:44	0:32
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	10:17	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	24:53	3:20
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	21:09	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	20:40	0:41
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:01	0:00
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	16:49	0:00
O. Määttä	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	18	17	1	.944	60:41	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Rosen	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	16:00	2:14
N. Ostlund	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:14	1:47
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	21:03	1:46
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:39	1:47
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	18:38	0:00
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:50	2:13
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:03	0:00
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:55	2:13
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	16:39	2:17
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	9:06	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	7:26	0:00
M. Geertsen	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	3:49	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	23:39	2:30
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	21:17	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	19:23	1:34
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	19:00	1:39
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	18:15	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	0	0	17:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	35	33	2	.943	60:47	OT loss
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz16:16C. Keller15:54B. Hayton15:35

Line 2J. Peterka14:59L. Cooley13:06D. Guenther12:30

Line 3L. Crouse11:03J. McBain11:40M. Carcone11:12

Line 4K. Stenlund11:44K. Yamamoto11:40B. Tanev10:17

Pair 1M. Sergachev18:03D. Simashev16:49

Pair 2N. Schmidt18:43J. Marino19:18

Pair 3I. Cole16:46O. Määttä13:55

BUF

Line 1J. Greenway15:26T. Thompson15:37P. Krebs18:38

Line 2I. Rosen13:40N. Ostlund13:21J. Quinn14:23

Line 3A. Tuch16:10R. McLeod14:51J. Doan14:22

Line 4B. Malenstyn8:29J. Dunne6:26M. Geertsen3:49

Pair 1M. Samuelsson18:33R. Dahlin20:22

Pair 2M. Kesselring16:04B. Byram17:15

Pair 3C. Timmins15:39O. Power16:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJosh Doan BUF Faces UTA, his team until Apr 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.5, BUF 3.3	UTA 2, BUF 1
Total goals	6.8	3
Shots on goal	UTA 29.5, BUF 27.9	UTA 35, BUF 18
Win chance	UTA 53%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.4	1	0.96	0	40%	0
UTA D. Guenther	3.0	2	0.88	0	30%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	2	0.78	0	17%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.6	6	1.02	2	31%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.5	3	0.90	1	27%	1
BUF A. Tuch	2.3	2	0.80	0	30%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.2	1	0.58	0	21%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.2	1	0.87	0	29%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.1	3	0.70	0	24%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	1	0.71	1	13%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	5	0.47	0	18%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.7	1	0.34	0	19%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.6	2	0.30	0	7%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.6	2	0.53	0	19%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	0	0.42	0	7%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.4	3	0.35	0	17%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.4	2	0.35	0	8%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	2	0.57	0	20%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.3	0	0.11	0	4%	0
BUF I. Rosen	1.2	0	0.22	1	11%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	1	0.31	0	15%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.2	3	0.32	0	13%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.1	0	0.27	0	11%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	1	0.33	0	14%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.1	0	0.32	0	5%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.1	1	0.42	0	11%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.1	0	0.18	0	7%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.0	2	0.25	0	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	1	0.31	0	10%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	0.9	1	0.13	1	9%	1
UTA B. Tanev	0.9	0	0.20	0	10%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.9	2	0.34	1	5%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.8	0	0.15	0	10%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	1	0.22	0	3%	0
UTA O. Määttä	0.6	0	0.17	0	3%	0
BUF M. Geertsen	0.4	1	0.04	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.